Opportunity Cost Prediction Using Incomplete Revenue Data
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional computing systems for revenue management face challenges in accurately predicting opportunity costs due to insufficient data and demand forecasting inaccuracies, especially in industries with high demand volatility and unpredictable market changes, leading to suboptimal pricing decisions and revenue loss.
Innovation Solution
A system that trains a machine learning model to estimate opportunity cost based on historical transaction data, transforming transaction prices into opportunity cost proxies, eliminating the need for demand forecasting and reducing data requirements, using an artificial intelligence model or neural network to predict opportunity costs as a function of remaining capacity and time to expiration.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If conventional demand forecasting techniques are used to predict opportunity costs, then the system can provide pricing recommendations, but the predictions become inaccurate due to insufficient data and demand volatility
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces an intermediary variable called 'opportunity cost proxy' that mediates between historical transaction data and opportunity cost predictions. Instead of directly predicting opportunity costs from limited data, the system first generates proxies from historical prices and transactions, then uses these proxies as training targets for the machine learning model. This intermediary approach allows the system to work effectively with insufficient data by creating surrogate measurements that capture the essential patterns needed for accurate prediction.
Solution Approach 2:
The system creates copies of historical transaction data in the form of opportunity cost proxies that represent future opportunity costs. By generating these proxy values from historical prices and transaction patterns, the system creates synthetic training data that mimics the structure and relationships of actual opportunity costs, enabling the model to learn from historical patterns without requiring extensive future data.
2Ease of operation
If complex optimization techniques are used to determine optimal pricing, then pricing decisions can be made, but the system becomes computationally intensive and difficult to implement
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces complex mechanical optimization systems with a machine learning-based predictive system. Instead of using iterative optimization algorithms that require complex mathematical computations and multiple iterations, the system trains a neural network to directly predict opportunity costs from input features. This substitution transforms a computationally intensive optimization problem into a more manageable pattern recognition task that can be implemented more easily in production environments.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the fundamental parameter being optimized from direct pricing decisions to opportunity cost predictions. By shifting the focus to predicting opportunity costs as an intermediate parameter, the system simplifies the overall pricing optimization process. The machine learning model learns to predict the key driver of optimal pricing (opportunity cost) rather than directly optimizing complex pricing functions, making the system easier to implement and more adaptable to changing conditions.
3Measurement precision
If extensive historical data is stored for accurate predictions, then prediction quality improves, but data storage requirements and processing complexity increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts only the essential features and patterns from historical transaction data that are necessary for predicting opportunity costs. Instead of storing and processing entire historical datasets, the system extracts key elements such as historical prices, transaction volumes, and temporal patterns, then uses these extracted features to generate opportunity cost proxies. This extraction approach maintains prediction accuracy while significantly reducing data storage requirements and processing complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system segments historical data into meaningful components that can be independently processed and stored. By dividing the historical transaction data into distinct features (prices, volumes, timestamps, product categories) and processing them separately to generate opportunity cost proxies, the system reduces the burden of storing and managing large monolithic datasets. Each segment can be stored and processed independently, improving efficiency while maintaining overall prediction accuracy.
Data Source
AI summary
Techniques for processing a service request are disclosed. An example method includes receiving, from a client device, a request specifying a service that consumes a resource. The method includes generating, by a neural network and without using a forecast for future utilization of the resource, a response to the request. The response includes a prediction of an opportunity cost of consumption of the resource. Generating the response is based on a remaining capacity of the resource and a remaining time to expiration of the resource. The method also includes providing, to the client device, an access to the service based on the response.


