Parking Waiting Time Estimation Using Blocking Probability Models
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Solution Overview
Problem
Drivers face challenges in finding available parking spaces, especially in areas with limited parking, as traditional navigation systems lack the ability to estimate waiting times for occupied spots, leading to uncertainty and inefficiency.
Innovation Solution
A system that processes parking data to determine blocking probabilities and builds a remaining parking duration model, predicting conditional and unconditional waiting times to park, which are then displayed to users through a user interface, aiding decision-making.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of information
If traditional navigation systems are used to find parking, then basic route guidance is provided, but waiting time estimation for occupied parking spots is not available
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by collecting and processing parking data before the user arrives at the destination. It builds a remaining parking duration model in advance and calculates blocking probabilities, so that when the user needs parking information, the waiting time estimation is already available without requiring complex real-time analysis.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces a server as an intermediary between the user's mobile device and the parking management system. The server handles the complex data processing, model building, and waiting time calculation, while the mobile device simply presents the results to the user. This intermediary approach resolves the contradiction by centralizing complexity in the server while keeping the user interface simple.
2Loss of time
If drivers search for parking spots manually in limited areas, then they may find available spots, but significant time is lost in the search process
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements feedback by continuously monitoring parking spot status and using this information to update the remaining parking duration model. The blocking probability calculation provides feedback on the likelihood of finding a spot, and this feedback loop allows the system to improve its predictions over time while reducing the time drivers spend searching for parking.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary analysis of parking patterns and builds predictive models before drivers arrive. By calculating blocking probabilities and estimating waiting times in advance based on historical and real-time data, the system reduces the time drivers spend searching while maintaining accurate predictions about parking availability.
3Reliability
If drivers wait for parking spots to become available, then they may secure a spot near the destination, but uncertainty remains about how long to wait
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces the mechanical approach of manually checking parking spots with an automated information system. The server calculates blocking probabilities and remaining parking durations using mathematical models, providing reliable predictions about waiting times. This substitution of mechanical search with computational analysis resolves the contradiction by providing both reliability in spot availability and information about waiting time.
Solution Approach 2:
The server acts as an intermediary that processes complex parking data and provides simplified, reliable predictions to users. It calculates blocking probabilities and waiting time estimates based on the remaining parking duration model, giving drivers confident information about whether to wait for a spot without requiring them to make uncertain decisions based on incomplete information.
Data Source
AI summary
An approach is provided for estimation of waiting time to park. The approach involves processing parking data from a parking area to determine a probability that all parking spots in the parking area are occupied. The parking data is collected from one or more parking sensors. The approach also involves building a remaining parking duration model for a plurality of cars parked in said all parking spots based on the parking data. The approach further involves calculating an estimated conditional waiting time to park in the parking area based on the remaining parking duration model. The approach further involves calculating an estimated unconditional waiting time to park in the parking area based on the blocking probability and the conditional waiting time to park.