3D Probability of Collision Topology Visualization
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Solution Overview
Problem
Satellite and space vehicle operators face challenges in assessing conjunction threats due to uncertainty about the level of risk posed by potential collisions, as they lack a clear understanding of probability of collision (Pc) estimation methods, variables, and sensitivities, which hinders informed maneuver planning.
Innovation Solution
A three-dimensional tool is developed to depict the variability of Pc inputs, providing a graphical user interface for computing devices to visualize miss distance, covariance size, and object size, enabling the integration of Mahalanobis space and Pc estimation techniques to derive error bounds and improve collision avoidance maneuvers.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If operators use probability of collision (Pc) estimates to assess conjunction threats, then they can identify collision risks, but they lack understanding of how Pc is estimated, what variables are used, and how Pc is sensitive to changes in those variables
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces visualisation tools as intermediary devices that bridge the gap between complex Pc calculation systems and operator understanding. These tools display input variables, sensitivity analyses, and estimation parameters in intuitive graphical formats, enabling operators to comprehend the methodology without requiring deep technical knowledge of the underlying calculations.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces complex mathematical and computational systems with visual representation systems. Instead of presenting raw numerical data and complex formulas, the system uses graphical interfaces to substitute the mechanical complexity of Pc calculations with intuitive visual patterns that operators can easily interpret.
2Productivity
If operators manually analyze Pc inputs and variables, then they can assess risk levels, but the process is time-consuming and lacks systematic approach
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary actions by pre-calculating and pre-visualizing sensitivity relationships between input variables and Pc outputs. The system prepares graphical templates and pre-configured display parameters that automatically adapt to different conjunction scenarios, eliminating the need for operators to manually analyze each variable relationship from scratch.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent creates a universal visualisation platform that handles multiple types of Pc input data (orbital parameters, object dimensions, covariance matrices) through a single integrated interface. This multi-functional tool can assess various conjunction scenarios and generate appropriate visualisations automatically, streamlining the risk assessment process across different operational contexts.
3Ease of operation
If operators focus on single Pc threshold values, then they can make quick decisions, but they cannot assess the quality of input data or understand variability in Pc estimates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent adds new dimensions to the traditional single-threshold decision framework by visualizing Pc estimates across multiple simultaneous dimensions: input variable ranges, sensitivity coefficients, and probability values. This multi-dimensional representation allows operators to maintain simple decision thresholds while simultaneously assessing input data quality and understanding estimate variability through graphical relationships between multiple parameters.
Data Source
AI summary
Systems, methods, devices, and non-transitory media of the various embodiments provide for a three dimensional tool for depicting the variability of probability of collision (Pc) inputs to Pc estimates. The depictions generated by the various embodiments may be used to quantify the quality of Pc input data required to yield actionable Pc estimates. Various embodiments may provide a graphical user interface (GUI) for a computing device that may display a three dimensional depiction of the variability of Pc inputs to Pc estimates.