3D Probability of Collision Visualization for Satellite Conjunction Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
Satellite and space vehicle operators face challenges in assessing conjunction threats due to uncertainty about the probability of collision (Pc) and the sensitivity of Pc estimates to input variables, leading to difficulties in determining the necessity for maneuvering to mitigate collision risks.
Innovation Solution
A three-dimensional tool and graphical user interface (GUI) for computing devices that depict the variability of Pc inputs, enabling users to visualize and quantify the quality of input data required for actionable Pc estimates, and providing tools for Pc validation results, including sensitivity analysis to input errors and derivation of required data qualities for decision-quality metrics.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If operators use probability of collision (Pc) estimates to assess conjunction threats, then the ability to quantify collision risk is improved, but the understanding and interpretation of Pc variability and sensitivity to input variables deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the abstract, difficult-to-interpret Pc value into a three-dimensional visual representation showing sensitivity to input variables (object size, covariance size, miss distance). This dimensional transformation allows operators to see Pc variability across multiple parameters simultaneously, converting a scalar risk metric into a comprehensive sensitivity landscape that reveals how Pc changes with different input conditions.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces a visual intermediary tool that mediates between the complex Pc calculation and operator understanding. This visualization acts as a translator, converting mathematical sensitivity analysis into intuitive graphical displays that bridge the gap between precise Pc estimation and operator comprehension of the underlying uncertainties and variable relationships.
2Reliability
If operators maneuver satellites to mitigate conjunction risks, then the safety of satellites is improved, but the cost and complexity of operations deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs sensitivity analysis and generates visualizations in advance of maneuver decisions, allowing operators to pre-assess how Pc responds to variations in input parameters. This preliminary exploration of the Pc landscape enables better-informed maneuver planning by identifying which input variables have the greatest impact on collision risk, thereby reducing the complexity of real-time decision-making.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent provides visual feedback showing how changes in input variables affect Pc estimates. This feedback mechanism allows operators to understand the relationship between input data quality and collision risk, enabling more informed decisions about whether maneuvers are necessary and what level of input data accuracy is required for reliable Pc assessment.
3Measurement precision
If operators require high accuracy in input data for Pc estimates, then the quality of Pc estimates is improved, but the difficulty of obtaining such data deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent analyzes how Pc changes with variations in input parameters (object size, covariance size, miss distance) and visualizes these relationships. By identifying which parameters have the greatest sensitivity impact on Pc, the tool allows operators to focus data collection efforts on the most critical parameters, reducing the overall difficulty of obtaining high-quality input data while maintaining acceptable Pc estimate quality.
Data Source
AI summary
Systems, methods, devices, and non-transitory media of the various embodiments provide for a three dimensional tool for depicting the variability of probability of collision (Pc) inputs to Pc estimates. The depictions generated by the various embodiments may be used to quantify the quality of Pc input data required to yield actionable Pc estimates. Various embodiments may provide tools for depicting Pc validation results. Various embodiments may provide a GUI for a computing device that may depict Pc validation results.