Piping System Risk Assessment Using Survival Time Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional risk assessment methods for process devices in steam plants do not adequately consider the unique characteristics of piping systems, leading to inaccurate calculations of malfunction probabilities.
Innovation Solution
A risk assessment device and method that performs survival time analysis based on piping system-related items and corrects parameters using device-related and operation-related items to accurately calculate malfunction probabilities for each type of malfunction.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If conventional RBI techniques are used to calculate malfunction probability, then the assessment can be performed using standard methods, but the characteristics of process devices in piping systems are not taken into consideration, leading to inaccurate results
Solution Approach 1:
The assessment method is segmented into distinct modules: data acquisition module for collecting piping system-related items, parameter calculation module for computing parameters based on survival time analysis, malfunction curve calculation module for generating curves from parameters, and probability calculation module for determining malfunction probabilities. This segmentation allows standard techniques to be enhanced with specialized analysis without creating an unmanageably complex monolithic system.
Solution Approach 2:
Parameters calculated through survival time analysis act as intermediaries that bridge the gap between standard RBI methods and customized piping system characteristics. These parameters serve as mediators that translate complex system-specific data into forms compatible with conventional risk assessment frameworks, enabling accurate customization without complete method overhaul.
2Measurement precision
If survival time analysis is performed based on piping system-related items, then the accuracy of parameter calculation is improved, but the complexity of the assessment process increases
Solution Approach 1:
Survival time analysis is performed as a preliminary step before malfunction probability calculation. By pre-calculating parameters based on piping system-related items and storing them for reuse, the system avoids redundant computations and manages complexity through structured preprocessing of critical data.
Solution Approach 2:
The assessment transitions from using generic malfunction probability values to using dynamically calculated parameters derived from survival time analysis. This parameter transformation enables the system to adapt standard assessment frameworks to specific piping system characteristics, improving accuracy while maintaining methodological consistency.
3Measurement precision
If device-related items and operation-related items are used to correct parameters, then the accuracy of malfunction probability is enhanced, but the data acquisition and processing complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
Device-related items and operation-related items serve as feedback mechanisms that adjust and correct the malfunction probability parameters. The system continuously refines its assessments by incorporating feedback from actual device performance data and operational conditions, enabling progressive accuracy improvement without requiring complete reassessment from scratch.
Solution Approach 2:
Corrections are applied locally to specific parameters based on device-related and operation-related items rather than uniformly across all assessments. This localized quality adjustment allows the system to针对性地 enhance accuracy for specific devices or operational conditions without increasing overall system complexity proportionally.
Data Source
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AI summary
A risk assessment device includes: a parameter storage unit (332) that calculates, based on data for calculation, one or more parameters for calculating a target malfunction curve and stores the calculated parameters, the parameters relating to piping system-related items, the data for calculation being stored in a storage unit (4) in which the piping system-related items and the number of years passed before malfunction are stored as the data for calculation with respect to each of a large number of process devices, and the piping system-related items relating to a piping system in which the process device is provided; a calculation condition acquisition unit (333) that acquires the piping system-related items with respect to the target process device; a parameter acquisition unit (334) that acquires a calculation parameter for obtaining the target malfunction curve based on the piping system-related items acquired with respect to the target process device and the stored parameters; and a malfunction curve calculation unit (337) that calculates the target malfunction curve based on the calculation parameter.