Population Estimation Using Wireless Terminal Dynamics
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods fail to accurately estimate population or population changes in a specific area based on the number of communication terminals present within that area.
Innovation Solution
A population estimating apparatus that inputs geographic and temporal information, extracts relevant wireless terminals from log data, applies predetermined relation parameters to estimate population, and classifies terminals as stayers or transients within the specified area.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If communication terminal data is used to estimate population, then population estimation can be performed without traditional surveys, but accuracy is insufficient due to failure to account for temporal and spatial variations
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies dynamics by transitioning from static population estimation to dynamic estimation that continuously updates based on real-time terminal position data. The system calculates movement states (stayer vs. transient) and updates population estimates as terminals move in and out of the target area, thereby improving accuracy while maintaining high efficiency through automated processing.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-calculating and storing movement states for each terminal based on their position history before performing population estimation. This allows the system to quickly determine whether terminals are stayers or transients during the estimation process, improving both accuracy and efficiency by avoiding repeated complex calculations.
2Device complexity
If simple terminal counting is used, then estimation process is simple and fast, but fails to distinguish between stayers and transients reducing accuracy
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies segmentation by dividing the terminal population into distinct categories: stayers (terminals that have been in the target area for a predetermined period) and transients (terminals that have not). This segmentation allows the system to apply different estimation logic to different terminal types, improving accuracy while keeping the process manageable through automated classification.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-calculating the movement state (stayer or transient) for each terminal based on their position history before performing the population estimation. This preliminary classification simplifies the main estimation process by providing ready-to-use categories, thereby improving accuracy without significantly increasing overall complexity.
3Measurement precision
If traditional survey methods are used, then population data can be obtained, but the process is time-consuming and cannot capture real-time population changes
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies mechanics substitution by replacing traditional mechanical survey methods (physical counting, questionnaires, etc.) with an automated information processing system that uses terminal position data from communication networks. This substitution enables real-time population estimation without the time-consuming nature of traditional surveys, while maintaining or improving accuracy through continuous data updates.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies self-service by utilizing terminal position data that is already being collected and transmitted by the communication network for other purposes (network management, location services, etc.). The population estimation system passively processes this existing data stream, eliminating the need for separate data collection efforts and enabling real-time estimation without additional time investment.
Data Source
AI summary
A population or a population change in an particular area is accurately estimated based on the number of communication terminals existing in the area. An input-unit to input input information indicating a geographic range and time of population estimation; a first-terminal-extracting-unit to extract wireless terminals existing in the geographic range and at the time indicated by the input information; a relation-parameter-extracting-unit to refer to a relation parameter storing unit to store relation parameter predetermined for each wireless terminal, which is a parameter to represent relation between the number of wireless terminals and population, and extract a relation parameter applied to a wireless terminal extracted by the first terminal extracting unit; and an estimation-value-deriving-unit to derive an estimation value of a population in the geographic range and at the time indicated by the input information, based on the relation parameter extracted by the relation parameter extracting unit are included.