Population Projection Apparatus Using Relational Equations for Scenario Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current population projection methods, such as the cohort component method, struggle to accurately analyze scenarios involving changes in birth rates and verify the effects of introduced measures, especially when data is limited or difficult to collect, and are not suitable for detailed parameter setting or versatile application in population change-related predictions.
Innovation Solution
A population projection method and apparatus that derive relational equations from past population changing components like births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants, using multiple regression analysis to calculate change rates and project future populations, allowing for scenario analysis by changing these rates, and enabling accurate predictions with minimal data.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If the cohort component method is used for population projection, then population projection values can be calculated for each 5-year age group, but it becomes difficult to analyze scenarios involving changes in birth rates and verify effects of introduced measures
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the population projection into individual year intervals instead of 5-year age groups, allowing each year to be independently analyzed and adjusted for scenario planning while maintaining projection accuracy
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces dynamic adjustment capabilities where birth rates and other parameters can be modified for specific years within the projection period, enabling flexible scenario analysis while maintaining the underlying projection model's accuracy
2Reliability
If the cohort component method is used, then population projection can be performed, but it is complicated to manipulate birth rates of each 5-year age group for scenario analysis
Solution Approach 1:
The patent divides the projection period into individual years rather than 5-year cohorts, allowing parameters to be manipulated at the yearly level without requiring complex adjustments across multiple age groups
Solution Approach 2:
The patent enables direct modification of birth rates and other parameters for specific years in the projection, simplifying scenario analysis by allowing users to change parameters at the point of need without complex interdependencies
3Measurement precision
If detailed data collection is performed for accurate population projection, then projection accuracy improves, but data collection becomes more difficult and time-consuming
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates a versatile projection model that can accurately project population using minimal input data, making the system universally applicable without requiring extensive data collection while maintaining precision through the yearly interval approach
Data Source
AI summary
In a population projection apparatus, a memory stores past values of population changing components in each year within a first period. A computing circuit derives relational equations each representing a relationship between a change rate indicating a proportion relative to a population and an elapsed time period from the start of the first period, with respect to the population changing components. Next, the computing circuit calculates, using the relational equations, change rates of the population changing components in each year within a second period that starts from the year after the first period, and changes a part of the calculated change rates to change rates input as a scenario. Thereafter, the computing circuit calculates a population of each year within the second period on the basis of the population of the previous year and the change rates of the population changing components of that year.