Position Specification Language for Complex Time Series Evaluation
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current prediction markets lack the ability to allow users to formulate arbitrary positions with respect to multiple variables, leading to limitations in expressiveness and the inability to evaluate complex, user-submitted propositions automatically, resulting in technical and usability challenges such as opacity and inefficient aggregation of user views.
Innovation Solution
A system utilizing a position specification language (PSL) and variable specification language (VSL) enables users to specify and evaluate complex, arbitrary positions by extracting and resolving variable specifications, validating position specifications, and coordinating the evaluation of positions across multiple variables with different intervals, ensuring safe and efficient evaluation.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Adaptability or versatility
If users are allowed to specify arbitrary positions with respect to multiple variables, then the expressiveness and usability of the system is improved, but the device complexity and difficulty of evaluation increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces a Position Specification Language (PSL) as an intermediary layer between users and the evaluation system. The PSL provides a standardized syntax and semantics for expressing complex positions involving multiple variables, acting as a mediator that translates user intentions into machine-evaluable forms while maintaining expressiveness without overwhelming complexity
Solution Approach 2:
The evaluation system is segmented into distinct components: variable specification, position specification, validation module, and evaluation module. This segmentation allows each component to handle specific aspects of complexity independently, making the overall system manageable while supporting arbitrary positions
2Ease of operation
If synthetic positions are used to approximate complex positions, then the ease of operation is improved, but the loss of information and opacity increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system enables users to directly specify and evaluate their own complex positions using the PSL without requiring approximation through synthetic positions. The automated evaluation system processes user-submitted position specifications directly, eliminating the need for intermediary synthetic constructs and preserving full information transparency
3Adaptability or versatility
If multiple constituent positions are taken simultaneously to approximate complex positions, then the adaptability is improved, but the loss of energy and time increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges multiple variable specifications and position conditions into a single unified position specification using the PSL. Instead of evaluating multiple separate constituent positions sequentially, the system evaluates the combined complex position in a single integrated operation, reducing time while maintaining adaptability to multiple variables
Data Source
AI summary
Methods evaluating propositions about timeseries are provided. A service accepts a proposition about one or more timeseries, and the service monitors those timeseries. A proposition can reference multiple timeseries with different time intervals and different units. When new data is available, the service evaluates the proposition to determine if the proposition is true, false, or neither. The service automatically performs unit conversions and selects relevant, previously observed values before evaluating a proposition when new data is available.