Power Consumption Baseline Estimation Using Conforming Day Selection
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for determining power consumption baselines are influenced by unusual days, such as those affected by weather, leading to inaccurate baseline settings.
Innovation Solution
An apparatus and method that receive consumer power consumptions from past days and determine a baseline using only conforming days within a predetermined range from a reference value, excluding the day of the demand response event, to ensure reliability and accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Ease of manufacture
If the maximum power consumption or average of top X power consumptions from past days is used as baseline, then the baseline can be determined using simple methods, but the baseline accuracy deteriorates when unusual days (weather-influenced days) are included in the calculation
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-screening and selecting only conforming days (days without unusual weather conditions) from the past data before calculating the baseline. The determining section identifies conforming days based on weather information and power consumption patterns, then uses only those selected days for baseline calculation, thereby preventing unusual days from affecting the baseline accuracy while maintaining a relatively simple calculation process
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies local quality by treating different days differently based on their characteristics. Instead of uniformly using all past days or a fixed number of top consumption days, the system selectively applies different weights or inclusion criteria to different days based on whether they are conforming days (normal weather) or unusual days (abnormal weather), thereby improving baseline accuracy by giving appropriate quality differentiation to different data points
2Quantity of substance
If all past days including unusual weather days are used for baseline calculation, then more data is available for calculation, but the reliability of the baseline deteriorates due to inclusion of non-comparable days
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies the taking out principle by extracting and removing unusual days (days with abnormal weather conditions) from the dataset before baseline calculation. The determining section identifies and excludes conforming days based on weather information and power consumption patterns, thereby maintaining a sufficient quantity of data for calculation while ensuring high reliability by removing non-comparable days that would otherwise degrade the baseline accuracy
Data Source
AI summary
An apparatus for estimating power consumption, includes: a receiving section that receives consumer power consumptions of a plurality of days in the past; and a determining section that determines an estimated value of the consumer power consumption by using power consumption on conforming days that conform to a predetermined range from a reference value, among the plurality of days.