Power Control Device Accuracy Visualization
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing PV systems predict power output without considering the accuracy of the predicted values, leading to unreliable energy management and control in home energy systems.
Innovation Solution
A power control device that displays predicted power values as a function of time, including variance, allowing for proper use and management of predicted power by associating accuracy information with the predicted values, enabling informed decision-making.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If predicted power values are used for energy management without considering accuracy, then energy management can be performed, but the reliability of energy management decisions deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements feedback by calculating the difference between predicted power values and actual measured power values, then using this difference information to adjust and improve future predictions. The system continuously monitors prediction accuracy and feeds this information back to refine the prediction model, thereby improving reliability while maintaining productivity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent changes parameters by introducing accuracy indicators (such as standard deviation or confidence intervals) to the predicted power values. Instead of providing single-point predictions, the system provides prediction ranges or accuracy metrics that allow users to assess reliability. This parameter enhancement resolves the contradiction by making both productivity and reliability visible and usable simultaneously.
2Measurement precision
If prediction accuracy is improved through correlation optimization, then prediction precision improves, but the complexity of the prediction system increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies self-service by enabling the prediction system to automatically calculate its own accuracy metrics and adjust its parameters without external intervention. The system autonomously computes correlation coefficients, determines optimal prediction models, and refines its own performance, thereby improving precision without proportionally increasing operational complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses copying by creating simplified models that replicate the behavior of complex prediction algorithms. Instead of directly implementing sophisticated machine learning models, the system uses correlation-based approaches that copy the essential predictive behavior with reduced computational complexity, maintaining precision while lowering system complexity.
Data Source
AI summary
A prediction calculator uses a prediction model to determine a predicted value of an amount of power to be generated by a power generation apparatus and a predicted value of an amount of power to be consumed by an appliance. The predicted values are associated with accuracy information. An operation planner makes an operation plan using the predicted values determined by the prediction calculator, a user schedule included in user setting information, and an electricity rate table or weather forecast information. When the accuracy of the predicted value is lower than a predetermined reference, the operation planner makes the operation plan only using other information without using the predicted value.


