Power Demand Prediction Device Using Dual Forecasting

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing power demand prediction technologies, such as those using meteorological data and neural networks, often result in significant discrepancies between predicted and actual power consumption due to weather variations, leading to inefficiencies in power trading and increased costs.

Innovation Solution

A power management device and method that calculates a first predicted power demand and a second predicted power demand, with a demand control section determining adjustments to be communicated to consumers to align actual demand with predicted levels, thereby reducing the need for real-time power procurement and minimizing trading costs.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If power demand is predicted on the basis of meteorological data, then a certain degree of power demand prediction can be performed, but there may occur a large difference between the result of the demand prediction and an actual amount of power consumption

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvepower demand prediction accuracyVSAvoidprediction reliability

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary power demand prediction before the actual consumption period based on meteorological data, then issues demands to consumers in advance to adjust their power usage patterns. This preliminary action allows the system to proactively manage power demand rather than reactively responding to discrepancies.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The system compares the first predicted power demand with the second predicted power demand (obtained closer to the actual consumption time) and uses this feedback to issue demands to consumers. The feedback mechanism continuously refines the prediction accuracy by adjusting consumer behavior based on the difference between early and late predictions.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

2Productivity

If power demand prediction is performed in advance, then power trading efficiency can be improved, but the discrepancy between predicted and actual power consumption increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvepower trading efficiencyVSAvoidpower demand prediction accuracy

Core Design Contradiction:

ProductivityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs power demand prediction in advance to enable early power trading decisions, improving trading efficiency. The preliminary prediction allows retailers to secure power supplies ahead of time while the system compensates for accuracy issues through subsequent demand adjustments to consumers.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The system uses feedback from comparing early predictions with later predictions to issue demands to consumers, thereby correcting the discrepancy between predicted and actual power consumption. This feedback loop maintains trading efficiency while improving prediction accuracy through consumer behavior adjustment.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

3Measurement precision

If demands are issued to consumers to adjust power usage, then actual power demand can be aligned with predicted levels, but consumer convenience may be reduced

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvepower demand alignment accuracyVSAvoidconsumer power usage convenience

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSEase of operation

Solution Approach 1:

The system enables consumers to self-adjust their power usage patterns in response to issued demands. Rather than forcing restrictions, consumers autonomously modify their consumption behavior to meet the demands, maintaining convenience while achieving alignment between predicted and actual power demand.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #25Self-service

Solution Approach 2:

The system provides feedback to consumers through issued demands that guide their power usage adjustments. This feedback mechanism helps consumers understand how to modify their behavior to align with predicted demand levels while preserving their autonomy and convenience in making decisions.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentUS9275354B2Power management device, power management method, and demand notifying device

Publication Date: 2016.03.01 SONY GROUP CORP

AI summary

A power management device includes a power demand predicting section, demand control section, demand issuing section, and acceptance receiving section. The power demand predicting section calculates a first predicted amount of power demand, representing a result of prediction of power demand of a power consumer on a date and time in a future, and a second predicted amount of power demand, being calculated after the first predicted amount of power demand, and represents a result of prediction of power demand of the consumer on the date and time in the future. The demand control section determines a demand for prompting the consumer to adjust the amount of power demand based on the first and the second predicted amounts of power demand. The demand issuing section issues the demand determined by the demand control section to the consumer. The acceptance receiving section receives acceptance of the issued demand by the consumer.