Pre-Flood Energy Storage Risk Control in Cascade Hydro-Wind-Solar Systems
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for long-term scheduling in hydro-wind-solar complementary systems fail to adequately balance and coordinate multiple operational risks, including power shortages, water spillage, and wind and solar power curtailment, due to the complex and multi-source uncertainties in pre-flood energy storage control.
Innovation Solution
A method for risk analysis and control of pre-flood energy storage in a cascade hydro-wind-solar system, utilizing a dry-season drawdown optimization model, five-stage hedging operation rules, K-value discrimination for cascade power generation allocation, and fuzzy theory to characterize uncertainty, combined with key risk indicators to quantify and manage operational risks.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If pre-flood energy storage is increased to ensure power supply during dry season, then power shortage risk is reduced, but water spillage risk during flood season increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies dynamic adjustment of pre-flood energy storage levels based on real-time risk assessment. The system continuously monitors multiple risk indicators and adjusts storage policies dynamically rather than using fixed thresholds, allowing the system to adapt storage levels to current hydrological conditions and risk profiles, thereby balancing power supply reliability with water spillage prevention
Solution Approach 2:
The patent changes the parameter of pre-flood energy storage levels based on risk indicator thresholds. When risk indicators suggest high probability of power shortage, the system increases storage levels; when flood risk is detected, the system decreases storage levels. This parameter adjustment mechanism resolves the contradiction by making storage levels responsive to actual risk conditions rather than static
2Reliability
If pre-flood energy storage is increased to compensate for wind and solar power, then wind and solar power curtailment is reduced, but water availability during dry season decreases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements a feedback mechanism where risk indicators from wind and solar power generation are continuously monitored and fed back into the energy storage control system. When wind and solar generation is low, the system increases hydropower storage to compensate; when wind and solar generation is high, the system reduces storage. This feedback loop resolves the contradiction by making water allocation responsive to actual renewable energy availability
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary assessment of wind and solar power generation prospects and adjusts pre-flood energy storage accordingly. By predicting future renewable energy availability and preparing storage levels in advance, the system avoids both over-storage (wasting water) and under-storage (failing to compensate renewables), thus resolving the water availability contradiction
3Ease of operation
If traditional long-term scheduling methods are used, then system operation is simplified, but multi-source risk coordination is insufficient
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the complex risk coordination problem into multiple independent risk indicators (power shortage risk, water spillage risk, wind-solar curtailment risk). Each risk is assessed separately using specific indicators and data sources, then the results are integrated into a comprehensive risk assessment. This segmentation makes the complex scheduling problem more manageable while improving risk coordination capability
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces risk indicators as intermediary elements between the scheduling system and the complex multi-source risks. These indicators serve as mediators that translate complex risk scenarios into quantifiable metrics, enabling the scheduling system to coordinate multiple risks without becoming overly complex. The risk indicators simplify the interface between scheduling decisions and risk outcomes
Data Source
AI summary
This invention relates to the field of power system generation scheduling and discloses a method for risk analysis and control of pre-flood energy storage in cascade hydro-wind-solar complementary systems. Taking the pre-flood energy storage as a constraint, a dry-season drawdown model and a flood-season water storage operation rule are established to define simulation criteria. A comprehensive set of indicators, including dry-season power shortages, flood-season water spillage, inadequate year-end energy storage, and wind and solar power curtailment, is constructed to quantify multi-stage, multi-source operational risks. By coupling Monte Carlo simulation with fuzzy membership functions, the method characterizes multidimensional uncertainty scenarios and their probabilities, and analyzes the quantitative relationship between pre-flood energy storage and system benefits, risk probabilities as well as losses. Simulation results demonstrate that precise risk characterization coupled with proper storage control increases annual generation by 580 million kWh while reducing average risk-induced losses by 42%, demonstrating substantial practicality.