Prediction Processing System Using Virtual Currency Incentives
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing prediction systems face challenges in collecting accurate and reliable collective intelligence due to limitations in scalability, motivation for participant engagement, and the introduction of bias, particularly in commercial and gamified prediction markets, which result in insufficient participation and monetization of data.
Innovation Solution
A prediction processing system that incorporates game-based mechanisms, allowing users to create and participate in private prediction games, providing rewards, and dynamically grouping participants based on performance to incentivize engagement and improve data accuracy, while enabling automated game generation and user-generated content to increase participation and data quality.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If commercial prediction markets use real money to incentivize participation, then user engagement increases, but bias is introduced and regulatory issues arise
Solution Approach 1:
The patent uses virtual currency instead of real money for predictions. The virtual currency has no real-world value but provides sufficient motivation for users to engage in thoughtful prediction behavior. This resolves the contradiction by maintaining user engagement while eliminating bias and regulatory issues associated with real-money gambling.
2Reliability
If virtual prediction markets are narrow in focus, then they avoid regulatory issues, but they lack incentive for lasting user engagement
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates a universal prediction platform that can handle diverse prediction types (sports, politics, entertainment, etc.) while maintaining virtual currency mechanics. This multi-functionality allows the system to avoid regulatory issues while providing lasting user engagement through varied prediction opportunities and social features.
Solution Approach 2:
The system allows users to create their own prediction markets and set their own rules within the virtual currency framework. This self-service capability empowers users to engage with the platform on their own terms, sustaining long-term participation without requiring narrow system-imposed focus.
3Ease of operation
If online surveys are simple and short, then user participation is easier, but prediction information is limited in depth, accuracy and reliability
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements dynamic prediction markets where users can engage with predictions at their own depth level. The system adapts to user behavior, allowing simple participation for casual users while enabling deeper, more accurate predictions for engaged users through features like prediction editing, justification submission, and performance tracking.
Solution Approach 2:
The system provides continuous feedback to users about their prediction accuracy and performance. This feedback loop motivates users to invest more time and thought into their predictions, improving accuracy while maintaining ease of participation through the familiar virtual currency reward structure.
4Reliability
If face-to-face polling is used, then direct communication pressure is applied, but scalability is limited by the number of available pollsters
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces the mechanical face-to-face polling system with an automated online virtual currency prediction platform. This substitution maintains the motivational pressure of direct engagement through virtual currency incentives and social competition while achieving unlimited scalability through automated digital delivery and global internet access.
Data Source
AI summary
A prediction processing system, method, and method for doing business is disclosed. The prediction processing system can collect, process, and publish event-outcome information. The prediction processing system can dynamically filter participants into groupings and iteratively optimize odds calculations over time. A proposal framework consisting of a various abstract proposal types can model and settle propositions. Game propositions can be automatically generated based on event categorization relationships, and users can themselves automatically establish their own game proposition and programs. The prediction processing system can provide game players or others with access to collective intelligence, including prediction information and information derived from prediction information. The prediction processing system can create groupings of better-performing predictors and provide them with information not generally available or additional stakes to increase the weight of their predictions in odds calculations. The prediction processing system can provide access to event-outcome information on a for-fee subscription basis.