Predictive Digital Component Distribution via Machine Learning
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for evaluating changes in digital component distribution criteria are expensive and time-consuming, as they require only a portion of the population to be subjected to altered criteria, leading to inaccurate performance comparisons.
Innovation Solution
A method using a machine learning model, specifically a multivariate Bayesian state space model, to predict the performance of digital component distribution across all geographical areas, allowing for the alteration of criteria for the entire population and accounting for correlations between regions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If A/B testing is used to evaluate changes in distribution criteria, then performance data can be obtained, but the process becomes expensive and time-consuming
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-training a machine learning model on historical distribution data before the actual evaluation is needed. The model learns patterns and relationships from past data, enabling rapid prediction of performance outcomes without requiring time-consuming A/B tests at the time of evaluation. This pre-computation approach resolves the contradiction by performing the heavy analytical work in advance.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses copying by creating a simulated environment through the machine learning model that replicates real-world distribution scenarios. Instead of conducting actual A/B tests on live systems, the model generates synthetic performance data that mirrors real outcomes. This virtual copy allows for rapid evaluation without the costs and time associated with physical experimentation.
2Measurement precision
If A/B testing is used to evaluate changes in distribution criteria, then performance data can be obtained, but the process becomes expensive
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs the computationally intensive model training and pattern recognition in advance, before the actual performance evaluation is needed. By pre-processing the historical data and establishing the predictive model beforehand, the expensive computing work is completed once rather than repeatedly during each evaluation, reducing overall computational resource consumption.
Solution Approach 2:
The machine learning model creates a virtual replica of the distribution system that can be queried for performance predictions without requiring expensive live A/B tests. This digital twin allows for repeated evaluations at minimal computational cost compared to running actual controlled experiments on production systems.
3Productivity
If only a portion of the population is subjected to altered criteria, then performance data can be collected, but the comparison becomes inaccurate
Solution Approach 1:
The machine learning model serves multiple functions simultaneously: it analyzes historical data, identifies patterns across different regions and time periods, and generates predictions for the entire population. This universal approach replaces the need for segmented A/B testing, providing accurate performance comparisons for all users rather than just test groups, thus resolving the contradiction between data collection efficiency and measurement precision.
Solution Approach 2:
The system incorporates feedback by continuously learning from historical distribution outcomes and using those insights to improve its predictions. The model analyzes the results of past distribution strategies across the entire population and uses this feedback to refine its understanding of what drives performance, enabling accurate comparisons without requiring controlled experimental groups.
Data Source
AI summary
Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for adjusting distribution criteria of digital component in one or more geographical regions. Methods include obtaining data quantifying digital component distribution in a first and a second region during a first predetermined period of time. A machine learning model is generated to predict a first outcome quantifying digital component distribution in the first region based on a correlation between digital component distribution in a first and a second region. Data is obtained that quantifies digital component distribution in the first region during a second predetermined period of time and a predicted second outcome is generated that quantifies digital component distribution during the second predetermined period of time. The predicted second outcome is compared with the digital component distribution in the first region and distribution criteria is adjusted for the first region based on the comparison.


