Predictive Digital Component Distribution via Machine Learning

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for evaluating changes in digital component distribution criteria are expensive and time-consuming, as they require only a portion of the population to be subjected to altered criteria, leading to inaccurate performance comparisons.

Innovation Solution

A method using a machine learning model, specifically a multivariate Bayesian state space model, to predict the performance of digital component distribution across all geographical areas, allowing for the alteration of criteria for the entire population and accounting for correlations between regions.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If A/B testing is used to evaluate changes in distribution criteria, then performance data can be obtained, but the process becomes expensive and time-consuming

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveperformance comparison accuracyVSAvoidevaluation time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by pre-training a machine learning model on historical distribution data before the actual evaluation is needed. The model learns patterns and relationships from past data, enabling rapid prediction of performance outcomes without requiring time-consuming A/B tests at the time of evaluation. This pre-computation approach resolves the contradiction by performing the heavy analytical work in advance.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent uses copying by creating a simulated environment through the machine learning model that replicates real-world distribution scenarios. Instead of conducting actual A/B tests on live systems, the model generates synthetic performance data that mirrors real outcomes. This virtual copy allows for rapid evaluation without the costs and time associated with physical experimentation.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

2Measurement precision

If A/B testing is used to evaluate changes in distribution criteria, then performance data can be obtained, but the process becomes expensive

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveperformance comparison accuracyVSAvoidcomputing resources
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of energy

Solution Approach 1:

The patent performs the computationally intensive model training and pattern recognition in advance, before the actual performance evaluation is needed. By pre-processing the historical data and establishing the predictive model beforehand, the expensive computing work is completed once rather than repeatedly during each evaluation, reducing overall computational resource consumption.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The machine learning model creates a virtual replica of the distribution system that can be queried for performance predictions without requiring expensive live A/B tests. This digital twin allows for repeated evaluations at minimal computational cost compared to running actual controlled experiments on production systems.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

3Productivity

If only a portion of the population is subjected to altered criteria, then performance data can be collected, but the comparison becomes inaccurate

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvedata collection efficiencyVSAvoidperformance comparison accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The machine learning model serves multiple functions simultaneously: it analyzes historical data, identifies patterns across different regions and time periods, and generates predictions for the entire population. This universal approach replaces the need for segmented A/B testing, providing accurate performance comparisons for all users rather than just test groups, thus resolving the contradiction between data collection efficiency and measurement precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The system incorporates feedback by continuously learning from historical distribution outcomes and using those insights to improve its predictions. The model analyzes the results of past distribution strategies across the entire population and uses this feedback to refine its understanding of what drives performance, enabling accurate comparisons without requiring controlled experimental groups.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentUS20240193461A1Content distribution
Publication Date: 2024.06.13 GOOGLE LLC
  • US20240193461A1 patent drawing
  • US20240193461A1 patent drawing
  • US20240193461A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for adjusting distribution criteria of digital component in one or more geographical regions. Methods include obtaining data quantifying digital component distribution in a first and a second region during a first predetermined period of time. A machine learning model is generated to predict a first outcome quantifying digital component distribution in the first region based on a correlation between digital component distribution in a first and a second region. Data is obtained that quantifies digital component distribution in the first region during a second predetermined period of time and a predicted second outcome is generated that quantifies digital component distribution during the second predetermined period of time. The predicted second outcome is compared with the digital component distribution in the first region and distribution criteria is adjusted for the first region based on the comparison.