Automated Interaction Detection in Predictive Models

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Solution Overview

Problem

Conventional predictive models are limited by the manual examination of interactions between predictor variables, which is infeasible in models with a large number of variables, leading to overlooked potential interactions and suboptimal performance.

Innovation Solution

Automated detection and evaluation of all possible pairs of predictor variables using statistical tests for complete spatial randomness, followed by encoding interactions into Boolean functions and additional predictive features.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If manual examination of predictor variable pairs is performed, then modeler can identify intuitive interactions, but all possible pairs cannot be evaluated when the number of variables is large

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveinteraction detection accuracyVSAvoidevaluation speed
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces manual mechanical examination of variable pairs with automated computer-based statistical analysis. The system automatically generates all possible pairs of predictor variables and applies spatial randomness tests to each pair, eliminating the limitation of manual review while maintaining detection accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent transforms the examination process by changing from manual inspection to automated statistical testing. It uses spatial randomness parameters and automated algorithms to evaluate interactions, enabling comprehensive analysis of all variable pairs regardless of dataset size.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

2Reliability

If all possible pairs of predictor variables are evaluated, then no interactions are overlooked, but the complexity of the analysis increases significantly

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel completenessVSAvoidanalysis complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts only the essential information needed for interaction detection by using spatial randomness tests that evaluate the joint distribution of variable pairs. This approach identifies interactions without requiring complex manual analysis of all possible relationships, reducing analytical complexity while maintaining completeness.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Solution Approach 2:

The system performs self-service by automatically generating all variable pairs, conducting spatial randomness tests, and identifying interactions without human intervention. The automated process handles the complexity internally, allowing comprehensive evaluation without proportionally increasing operational complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

3Productivity

If automated evaluation of all predictor variable pairs is performed, then model development time is reduced, but computational resources are consumed

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel development speedVSAvoidcomputational resource usage
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSUse of energy by moving object

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies partial action by using spatial randomness tests that provide sufficient information for interaction detection without requiring exhaustive analysis of all possible interaction mechanisms. This approach achieves adequate detection accuracy with reduced computational effort compared to comprehensive manual analysis of all variable relationships.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Data Source

PatentUS20240095556A1Automated Detection and Extraction of Interacting Variables for Predictive Models
Publication Date: 2024.03.21 STATE FARM MUTAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COMPANY
  • US20240095556A1 patent drawing
  • US20240095556A1 patent drawing
  • US20240095556A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Techniques for detecting interactions between predictor variables in a statistical model are provided. The techniques include identifying predictor variables for a dependent variable; and for each pair of predictor variables: obtaining a dataset including (i) first predictor variable values, (ii) second predictor variable values, and (iii) dependent variable values associated with each pair of a first predictor variable value and a second predictor variable value; generating a three-dimensional graph based on the dataset, wherein each point of the three-dimensional graph includes a first coordinate value associated with a first predictor variable, a second coordinate value associated with a second predictor variable, and a third coordinate value associated with a dependent variable outcome; and analyzing the three-dimensional graph to determine a measure of spatial randomness associated with the three-dimensional graph. The techniques further include identifying pairs of predictor variables having interactions based on their respective measures of spatial randomness.