Probabilistic Alerting for Aircraft Unstabilized Approaches
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current aircraft approach and landing procedures lack effective methods to predict and prevent unstable approaches, which are a major cause of accidents, as pilots must check multiple criteria at critical altitudes, often too late to abort the approach safely.
Innovation Solution
A system and method that use historical flight data, weather data, and aircraft performance data to develop a prediction model that provides a single indicator of stable approach criteria, allowing pilots to adjust the aircraft trajectory before reaching stabilization altitudes, using conditional probability and supervised learning methods to identify potential unstable approaches.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If pilots check multiple stable approach criteria at 1000 feet and 500 feet, then approach stability can be monitored, but the detection is too late to abort the approach safely and pilot workload increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary analysis of flight data, weather conditions, and aircraft performance to generate a probability indicator of unstable approach before the aircraft reaches critical altitudes. This allows pilots to take corrective action in advance rather than waiting until 1000 or 500 feet when it may be too late to abort safely.
Solution Approach 2:
The system introduces an intermediary probabilistic indicator that synthesizes multiple criteria into a single predictive warning. This intermediary signal provides advance notice of potential instability without requiring pilots to manually check all six individual criteria at critical altitudes.
2Reliability
If pilots check six independent sets of data for stable approach criteria, then comprehensive monitoring is achieved, but the complexity of monitoring increases and response time decreases
Solution Approach 1:
The system merges six independent monitoring criteria into a single probabilistic indicator that predicts unstable approach likelihood. This consolidation maintains comprehensive monitoring coverage while simplifying the pilot's task to checking one integrated warning signal instead of six separate parameters.
Solution Approach 2:
The probabilistic indicator serves as a universal warning signal that encompasses all six stable approach criteria simultaneously. This single multi-functional indicator replaces multiple separate monitoring requirements, reducing complexity while maintaining reliability.
3Ease of operation
If pilots assume the approach is stable when in doubt, then pilot workload is reduced, but the safety margin decreases and accidents may occur
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies preliminary anti-action by providing a probabilistic warning that proactively identifies potential unstable approaches before pilots make decisions at critical altitudes. This advance warning allows pilots to take corrective action rather than relying on assumptions when in doubt.
Data Source
AI summary
Traditional approaches to predicting aircraft trajectories using kinematic models cannot work due to the complexity of the approach maneuver including flaps/slats, landing gear, ATC vectors, winds, and other traffic. The methods and systems disclosed can utilize Big Data Analytics (e.g., massive amounts of data of flights on each approach) to nowcast the approach stability given the state of the flight prior to the 1000′/500′ check points.