Probabilistic Conflict Detection Using Position Uncertainty
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional conflict detection systems in aviation fail to account for position uncertainties in aircraft navigation systems, leading to nuisance alerts and potential disruptions in airport operations due to inaccuracies in determining the actual position of vehicles.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that calculate the probability of a vehicle's actual position within a region of interest based on its reported position, determining the likelihood of a collision threat and generating alerts only when a certain probability threshold is met, thereby reducing unnecessary alerts.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If conventional conflict detection systems use reported position data without accounting for position uncertainty, then the system complexity remains low, but the reliability of collision detection deteriorates due to nuisance alerts from position inaccuracies
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the binary collision detection approach into a probabilistic one by changing the parameter from simple position matching to probability calculation. The system calculates the probability that two vehicles will be in conflict based on their reported positions and associated uncertainties, allowing for more reliable detection while accounting for navigation system inaccuracies.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces probability as an intermediary concept between reported position data and collision detection decisions. Rather than directly comparing positions, the system uses probability calculations that incorporate position uncertainties, serving as a mediator that resolves the contradiction between simple detection and reliable detection.
2Loss of information
If conventional systems issue alerts based on reported position without considering position error, then the detection speed is high, but the loss of information increases due to false collision threats
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary probability calculations using reported position data and uncertainty parameters before issuing collision alerts. By pre-calculating the probability of conflict based on available navigation data, the system filters out false collision threats before they become actionable alerts, reducing information loss about actual threats.
3Measurement precision
If the system accounts for position uncertainty in conflict detection, then the measurement precision of collision risk assessment improves, but the device complexity increases due to probability calculations
Solution Approach 1:
The patent changes the assessment parameter from binary collision detection to probabilistic collision risk assessment. By incorporating position uncertainty parameters into the detection algorithm, the system achieves more precise measurement of collision risk while maintaining a manageable calculation complexity through efficient probability computations.
Data Source
AI summary
A method according to the present invention includes calculating, based on a reported position of a vehicle, a probability that an actual position of the vehicle is within a region of interest. The method further includes determining whether a threat of a collision exists between the vehicle and an object based on the probability that the actual position of the vehicle is within the region of interest and a reported position of the object. The method further includes generating an alert if it is determined a threat of a collision exists between the vehicle and the object.