Probabilistic Drilling Scenario Detection and Mitigation
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Solution Overview
Problem
Drilling operations in subterranean regions face inefficiencies due to unpredictable drilling scenarios such as excessive bending caused by interactions with stringers, leading to increased drilling time and equipment wear, which existing technologies struggle to address effectively in a timely and cost-efficient manner.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that acquire sensor data during drilling, estimate probabilities of drilling scenarios occurring with and without specific actions, calculate a break-even threshold based on associated costs, and perform mitigating actions when the probability exceeds this threshold, optimizing decision-making to minimize time loss and unnecessary actions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If operators react to drilling scenarios after they occur, then the response can mitigate the scenario, but the timing delay reduces the effectiveness of the reaction and increases drilling time
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by detecting drilling scenarios before they fully manifest and calculating probabilities of occurrence. This allows operators to take preventive measures in advance, such as adjusting drilling parameters or preparing mitigation strategies, thereby reducing the delay between scenario occurrence and effective response while minimizing drilling time loss
2Reliability
If operators perform actions to mitigate drilling scenarios, then the scenarios can be avoided, but the cost of performing these actions increases operational costs
Solution Approach 1:
The system changes operational parameters dynamically based on calculated probabilities. Instead of always performing mitigation actions or never performing them, the system adjusts drilling parameters (such as rate of penetration, weight on bit, or rotational speed) based on the probability threshold, thereby achieving scenario mitigation only when necessary and reducing unnecessary operational costs
3Reliability
If operators always perform mitigating actions, then drilling scenarios are prevented, but unnecessary actions increase operational costs and reduce efficiency
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies partial action by performing mitigation only when the calculated probability exceeds a predetermined threshold. This selective approach avoids unnecessary mitigation actions when the probability is low, thereby maintaining drilling efficiency while still providing reliable prevention when the risk is significant enough to warrant intervention
Data Source
AI summary
A method of performing a drilling operation includes acquiring sensor data during a drilling operation performed in a subterranean region, estimating a first probability PA of a drilling scenario manifesting if a first action is performed, and estimating a second probability PNA of the drilling scenario manifesting if the first action is not performed or a second action is performed. The method includes calculating a break even threshold based on the first probability and the second probability, the break even threshold calculated based on a set of costs including a first cost CA of performing the first action to mitigate the drilling scenario and a second cost CNA associated with the drilling scenario if the first action is not performed or the second action is performed, and based on the acquired sensor data and the break even threshold, performing the first action.