Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Module

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing tools are inadequate for generating deterministic time series forecasts when dealing with non-deterministic data or conditions that hinder deterministic forecasting.

Innovation Solution

A platform, language, cloud, and database agnostic time series forecasts generating module that utilizes machine learning models and techniques to output time series forecasts based on probabilistic data.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Adaptability or versatility

If deterministic data processing tools are used, then forecast accuracy is maintained, but the system cannot handle non-deterministic data or probabilistic conditions

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveability to handle non-deterministic dataVSAvoidforecast accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The system changes the fundamental parameter of data handling from deterministic to probabilistic. It processes data by considering probability distributions and uncertainty rather than fixed values, enabling it to handle non-deterministic data while maintaining forecast reliability through probabilistic methods.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces traditional deterministic mechanical forecasting systems with probabilistic machine learning models. This substitution allows the system to handle uncertainty and non-deterministic data patterns, improving adaptability while maintaining accuracy through statistical and probabilistic reasoning.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Adaptability or versatility

If existing deterministic forecasting tools are used, then processing is simple, but the system fails when data is non-deterministic or contains high noise

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvehandling of probabilistic dataVSAvoidprocessing complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system achieves universality by designing a single probabilistic forecasting framework that can handle both deterministic and non-deterministic data. The machine learning models are trained to process probabilistic data directly, providing multi-functionality that simplifies the overall system despite the increased complexity of handling uncertainty.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces probabilistic machine learning models as intermediaries between the input data and forecast output. These models act as mediators that process non-deterministic data and transform it into meaningful probabilistic forecasts, managing the complexity through structured modeling layers.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

3Adaptability or versatility

If probabilistic machine learning models are implemented, then the system can process non-deterministic data, but the processing time and computational resources increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprocessing of stochastic dataVSAvoidforecast generation time
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary actions by pre-training machine learning models on historical data and pre-computing feature representations. This preparation allows the models to quickly process new non-deterministic data and generate forecasts with reduced computational time, balancing adaptability with efficiency.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent applies partial action by selectively processing only the necessary portions of probabilistic data through machine learning models. The system processes data at the appropriate level of granularity and applies probabilistic methods only where necessary, reducing unnecessary computational overhead while maintaining handling capability for non-deterministic data.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Data Source

PatentUS20250045612A1System and method for generating time series forecasts based on probabilistic data
Publication Date: 2025.02.06 JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NA
  • US20250045612A1 patent drawing
  • US20250045612A1 patent drawing
  • US20250045612A1 patent drawing

AI summary

System and method for generating time series forecasts based on probabilistic data are disclosed. A processor receives a request to identify at least one feature of a dataset that is most closely correlated to a single feature specified in the received request. The dataset includes the probabilistic data of the time series. The processor identifies a set of original features within the dataset and derives a degree of dependency between a single specified feature and each original feature by using a temporally first portion of the dataset. After deriving a degree of dependency between all the features including the single specified feature and each engineered feature of the set of original features, the processor identifies an original feature or an engineered feature with the highest degree of dependency as the at least one feature of the dataset that is most closely dependent to the single specified feature.