Probability Density Curve Interface for Forecasting Estimates
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing techniques for eliciting and aggregating group forecasts, such as estimate contests and prediction markets, are often time-consuming and prone to errors, especially when dealing with many possible outcomes, and can be daunting for users due to their complexity and reliance on market metaphors.
Innovation Solution
A user interface that allows users to express forecasting estimates by defining probability density curves and scoring curves, either through selection from predefined options or freehand drawing, providing real-time feedback and scoring, facilitating intuitive and efficient participation in estimate contests and prediction markets.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If users are asked to assign probabilities to many possible outcomes in estimate contests or prediction markets, then accurate forecasting can be obtained, but the process becomes time-consuming and error-prone
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the complex task of assigning probabilities to many outcomes into a simpler graphical interface where users draw a single probability density curve. This curve automatically provides probability assignments for all possible outcomes, eliminating the need to individually specify each probability while maintaining forecasting accuracy.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces a probability density curve as an intermediary representation between the user's forecast and the underlying probability assignments. Users interact with the curve visually rather than directly assigning probabilities to numerous outcomes, reducing time and errors while preserving measurement precision.
2Measurement precision
If prediction markets use market metaphors and securities concepts to aggregate forecasts, then accurate predictions can be obtained, but the interface becomes daunting for many users
Solution Approach 1:
The patent uses a familiar graphical copying metaphor (drawing curves on a canvas) to replace the unfamiliar market metaphors of prediction markets. Users can visually copy and manipulate probability density curves, making the interface more accessible while maintaining the ability to aggregate accurate forecasts.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent changes the fundamental parameters of user interaction from financial market concepts (prices, securities, trades) to graphical visualization parameters (curve shapes, areas under curves). This parameter transformation maintains forecasting accuracy while dramatically improving ease of operation and user accessibility.
Data Source
AI summary
A user interface allows a user to freehand draw a probability density curve, or to select from predetermined probability densities, such as a normal distribution. The probability density represents the user's opinion regarding the probability of occurrence for different outcomes of a future event. The user can easily manipulate the shape of the probability density by dragging portions of the curve using an input device, such as to change the mean or standard deviation. Further, a scoring rule is applied to the probability density so that an updated score is displayed as the probability density is manipulated. The probability density can be input to an estimate contest or a prediction market, for instance. The user interface can also allow the user to freehand draw a scoring curve from which a probability density can be computed based on a scoring rule.