Production Index Prediction Using Moving Object Stay Data

Solution Overview

Problem

Investors face challenges in predicting market surprises due to significant deviations between the government-published production index and market consensus, leading to unpredictable securities price fluctuations.

Innovation Solution

A prediction device and method that utilize the number of moving objects staying in a production area to estimate a correlation coefficient, allowing for the prediction of a production index and potential market surprises by analyzing position information from mobile terminals and vehicles, using linear regression and threshold values to determine fluctuations.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If investors use market consensus to predict production index, then portfolio adjustments can be made based on predicted values, but market surprises cannot be foreseen when actual production index deviates significantly

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveprediction reliabilityVSAvoidmarket surprise information

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSLoss of information

Solution Approach 1:

The patent introduces moving object stay numbers as an intermediary indicator to predict the production index before official publication. By using GPS data from vehicles and mobile phones, the system creates a leading indicator that reflects economic activity in production areas, allowing investors to anticipate market surprises rather than react to them after they occur.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Solution Approach 2:

The system performs preliminary prediction of the production index by analyzing moving object stay numbers before the official production index is released. This preliminary action enables investors to adjust their portfolios in advance based on predicted values, capturing profit opportunities from anticipated market movements rather than reacting after the fact.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

2Measurement precision

If investors wait for government-published production index, then accurate economic data is obtained, but securities prices already fluctuate significantly by then

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveproduction index accuracyVSAvoidinvestment response time

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary prediction of the production index by analyzing moving object stay numbers before the official production index is released. This preliminary action enables investors to adjust their portfolios in advance based on predicted values, capturing profit opportunities from anticipated market movements rather than reacting after the fact.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the traditional mechanical system of waiting for government publication with an automated information processing system using GPS data and machine learning algorithms. This substitution enables real-time prediction and automated portfolio adjustment, eliminating the time delay inherent in traditional economic indicator-based investing.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

3Productivity

If many investors adjust portfolios simultaneously based on production index publication, then portfolios are optimized, but securities prices fluctuate significantly

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveportfolio adjustment efficiencyVSAvoidsecurities price volatility

Core Design Contradiction:

ProductivityVSObject-generated harmful factors

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary prediction of the production index by analyzing moving object stay numbers before the official production index is released. This preliminary action enables investors to adjust their portfolios in advance based on predicted values, capturing profit opportunities from anticipated market movements rather than reacting after the fact.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements a feedback mechanism where the predicted production index is continuously compared with market consensus and actual published values. This feedback loop allows the system to learn from prediction accuracy and refine its models, while also enabling investors to adjust portfolios progressively rather than making large simultaneous adjustments.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentUS12547912B2Device of predicting, medium of predicting, and method of predicting production index using moving object stay number

Publication Date: 2026.02.10 TOYOTA JIDOSHA KK

AI summary

A prediction device includes one or more processors configured to record a number of moving objects staying in a predetermined production area for every predetermined period, record an actual production index for each predetermined period, estimate a correlation coefficient by using training data that associates the number of moving objects staying in the predetermined production area with the actual production index for the predetermined period, and calculate a predicted production index for a target period based on a number of moving objects staying for the target period, using the correlation coefficient.