Project Progress Prediction Using Plan-to-Performance Period Ratios
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional project management systems struggle to accurately predict future progress deviations, including due dates, making it difficult to manage and address delays effectively.
Innovation Solution
A progress prediction method and device utilizing machine learning models to calculate a progress evaluation index based on the ratio of planned and actual periods, allowing for the prediction of future progress status and due dates by considering the relationship between plan and performance periods, and adjusting resource allocation as needed.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If conventional progress management methods using man-hours are used, then progress status can be grasped, but future progress prediction including due dates becomes difficult
Solution Approach 1:
The invention changes the parameter used for progress measurement from man-hours to a progress evaluation index based on period ratios. By calculating the ratio of plan period to performance period, the system achieves accurate future progress prediction including due dates while maintaining simple processing. This parameter transformation resolves the contradiction by enabling precise predictions without complex computational methods.
2Reliability
If detailed progress tracking is implemented, then progress status can be monitored, but prediction of future due dates becomes complex
Solution Approach 1:
The invention implements a feedback mechanism by continuously calculating the progress evaluation index based on actual performance data and comparing it with the plan. This feedback loop provides reliable progress monitoring while the index itself serves as a simple predictive tool for future due dates. The feedback mechanism ensures accuracy without requiring complex prediction algorithms.
3Loss of information
If progress is evaluated using man-hours, then current status is known, but future progress and due dates cannot be predicted
Solution Approach 1:
The invention performs preliminary calculation of the progress evaluation index during the planning phase by establishing the plan period and performance period framework. This preliminary setup enables future progress information to be predicted without requiring complex real-time calculations. The index is pre-defined based on period ratios, allowing future predictions to be made simply by comparing actual performance against the plan.
Data Source
AI summary
[TASK] To make it possible to predict, at an intermediate point of a step in an ongoing project, a progress including subsequent due dates with simple processing.[SOLUTION] A progress prediction method for a project including at least one step includes: acquiring data of a progress plan including a progress level of the step and an execution timing corresponding thereto; acquiring data of progress performance including a progress level of a completed part of the progress plan and an execution timing corresponding thereto; calculating, based on the data of the progress performance, a performance period from a reference time point of the step to a predetermined time point at which a predetermined progress level was achieved; calculating, based on the data of the progress plan, a plan period from the reference time point of the step to a time point at which a progress level same as the predetermined progress level is achieved; calculating, based on the performance period and the plan period, a progress evaluation index regarding progress of the step; and predicting, based on the progress evaluation index, data of the progress performance after the predetermined time point.