Project Schedule Forecasting Using Historical Work Rates
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current project management software lacks robust capabilities for data-driven, on-the-fly project schedule forecasting, particularly in agile software development methodologies, where historical data for work completion rates is not effectively utilized for rapid evaluation of scheduling scenarios.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method and system for project schedule forecasting that allows users to select and input work items with estimates, specify attributes referencing historical work completion data, and calculate an estimated time of completion based on historical rates, enabling on-the-fly forecasting and display of results.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If project management software utilizes historical data for work completion rates to perform forecasting, then measurement precision of schedule estimates is improved, but device complexity increases due to data processing requirements
Solution Approach 1:
The system automatically retrieves historical work completion data from stored project data without requiring manual intervention. The processor autonomously calculates work completion rates by dividing completed work estimates by total work estimates, and uses these rates to forecast future schedules. This self-service approach improves measurement precision while managing complexity through automation rather than manual data processing.
Solution Approach 2:
The system transforms historical work completion data into a derived parameter (work completion rate) by calculating the ratio of completed work to total work. This parameter change simplifies the complex historical data into a usable metric for forecasting. The forecasted time of completion is then derived by dividing remaining work estimates by the calculated work completion rate, transforming complex historical analysis into a straightforward calculation.
2Productivity
If the system performs on-the-fly schedule forecasting using historical data, then productivity of project planning is improved, but loss of time increases due to data retrieval and calculation operations
Solution Approach 1:
The system pre-stores historical work completion data in the project data storage, eliminating the need for real-time data collection. By having the data ready in advance, the system can perform rapid calculations when forecasting is needed. The processor retrieves pre-stored data and immediately calculates work completion rates and forecasted times without time-consuming data gathering operations.
3Reliability
If the software provides robust capabilities for data-driven forecasting, then reliability of project schedule estimates is improved, but ease of operation decreases due to additional input requirements
Solution Approach 1:
The system automatically retrieves and processes historical work completion data without requiring users to manually input or configure data sources. Users simply select the project and specify the work items, and the system autonomously handles data retrieval, calculation of work completion rates, and generation of forecasted times. This maintains reliability through automated data-driven processing while preserving ease of operation through minimal user input requirements.
Data Source
AI summary
A computer-implemented method of performing project schedule forecasting based on stored project data includes receiving a first user input selecting a first plurality of work items in a project. Respective work items of the first plurality have respective work estimates. A second user input is received specifying one or more first work item attributes referencing historical work completion data. A first historical rate of work completion is determined in accordance with the historical work completion data referenced by the one or more first work item attributes. An estimated time of completion of the first plurality of work items is calculated in accordance with the first historical rate of work completion and provided for display.