Promotional Forecasting System Using ML-AI Segmentation

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Solution Overview

Problem

Enterprise organizations face challenges in predicting product demand across numerous retail locations due to varying promotional strategies and geographical differences, leading to difficulties in stocking the right quantities for promotions.

Innovation Solution

A promotional forecasting computing system utilizing machine learning-artificial intelligence (ML-AI) models, including clustering, time-series forecasting, and optimization algorithms, to predict demands for products on promotion across multiple retail locations, accounting for geographical variations and providing accurate forecasts up to several weeks in advance.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional forecasting methods are used for each retail location individually, then the system complexity remains low, but the forecasting accuracy deteriorates due to inability to capture promotional effects and geographical variations

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvedemand forecast accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the forecasting problem by creating separate models for different product categories and retail locations. Each model is trained on specific data relevant to its segment, allowing the system to handle complexity through organized division rather than monolithic processing. This segmentation enables accurate local forecasting while maintaining manageable system architecture through modular design.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces multiple dimensions to the forecasting approach by incorporating promotional indicators, geographical location data, and temporal patterns into the model inputs. This dimensional expansion allows the system to capture complex relationships between promotions, location characteristics, and demand patterns, improving accuracy without overwhelming complexity by organizing data structurally.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #17Another dimension (Dimensionality change)

2Measurement precision

If detailed local data is collected and processed for each retail location, then the forecast precision improves, but the data processing time and computational resources increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvelocal demand forecast precisionVSAvoiddata processing time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent performs preliminary data processing and model training in advance, creating pre-trained models that can quickly generate forecasts for new locations or products. Historical data is processed and models are trained beforehand, so when actual forecasting is needed, the system can leverage these pre-computed models rather than processing everything from scratch, significantly reducing real-time processing time while maintaining local precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent creates copies of proven models and adapts them to new locations or product categories rather than training entirely new models from scratch. This model copying approach allows the system to leverage existing knowledge and quickly adjust to local variations, reducing computational time while maintaining forecast precision through targeted model adaptation rather than retraining.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

3Adaptability or versatility

If the system forecasts for multiple product categories and locations simultaneously, then the versatility improves, but the model selection and training complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemulti-location and multi-category forecasting capabilityVSAvoidmodel management complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the forecasting system into separate, category-specific and location-specific models. This segmentation allows the system to handle multiple product categories and locations simultaneously by processing them as distinct units, each with its own trained model. The modular structure manages complexity through organization, enabling versatile forecasting across diverse scenarios without creating a single complex monolithic model.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent creates a universal forecasting framework that can handle multiple product categories and locations through a common architectural structure. The same basic model framework and data processing pipeline serve all categories and locations, with specific models instantiated as needed. This universality enables versatile multi-location and multi-category forecasting while managing complexity through standardized, reusable components rather than unique models for each scenario.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Data Source

PatentUS20240281831A1Systems and methods for using machine learning algorithms to forecast promotional demand of products
Publication Date: 2024.08.22 CVS PHARMACY INC
  • US20240281831A1 patent drawing
  • US20240281831A1 patent drawing
  • US20240281831A1 patent drawing

AI summary

A method is provided. The method includes: obtaining a new marketing promotion for a particular product; determining, based on the particular product, a first product segment from a plurality of product segments; determining, by the PFCS, one or more promotional forecasting machine learning-artificial intelligence (ML-AI) models from a plurality of promotional forecasting ML-AI models to use for the new marketing promotion based on the first product segment; inputting promotional information associated with the new marketing promotion into the one or more determined promotional forecasting ML-AI models to forecast an amount of the particular product to provide to one or more storefronts; and providing product information indicating the amount of the particular product to one or more facility computing systems associated with the one or more storefronts.