PV Forecasting Using Prototype Scaling and Insolation Data
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Solution Overview
Problem
Electricity providers face challenges in accurately predicting solar power generation due to varying capabilities of solar power systems and environmental factors like seasonal fluctuations and weather conditions.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method that processes data from measurement devices and prototype photovoltaic installations to determine insolation levels and estimate solar power generation, allowing for the generation of accurate solar power generation forecasts.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Adaptability or versatility
If solar power systems are deployed with varying configurations (number of panels, orientation), then the adaptability to different installation scenarios is improved, but the difficulty of predicting power generation increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies parameter changes by using insolation level measurements as a key variable to predict solar power generation. The system measures insolation levels and uses these measurements to estimate power generation for different photovoltaic installation configurations, allowing predictions to adapt to varying panel numbers, orientations, and weather conditions through changes in the insolation parameter
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces an intermediary approach by using insolation measurements as a mediator between environmental conditions and power generation predictions. Rather than directly modeling complex system variations, the system uses insolation level as an intermediate parameter that captures the essential environmental factors affecting all solar power systems in a given location
2Measurement precision
If insolation measurements and prototype data are processed to estimate solar power generation, then the accuracy of power generation prediction is improved, but the complexity of the forecasting system increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent uses a prototype photovoltaic installation as a simplified copy or representative model. By processing data from a single prototype system and scaling based on insolation measurements, the system predicts power generation for multiple installations without requiring complex individual modeling of each system, thus balancing accuracy with manageable complexity
3Productivity
If solar power generation is predicted to scale electricity production, then the efficiency of electricity distribution is improved, but the reliability of prediction under varying environmental conditions deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by measuring insolation levels and predicting solar power generation in advance of actual electricity distribution needs. This allows electricity providers to proactively scale production and storage capabilities before demand occurs, improving distribution efficiency while building predictive models that account for environmental variations through historical insolation data
Applied Scientific Principles
This section explains which scientific principles are used to turn an abstract innovation direction into a practical engineering solution.
Function Achieved in This Case
Enables electricity providers to scale electricity production efficiently to meet anticipated demand, improving the overall efficiency of electricity distribution and allowing for accurate predictions independent of environmental factors.
Implementation Method 1
a first prototype photovoltaic installation to determine that a first estimated solar power generation level corresponding to the first prototype photovoltaic installation indicates a first solar power generation level that is output by the first photovoltaic installation during exposure to solar energy
Data Source
AI summary
Techniques for forecasting solar power generation include determining, by a computing device, one or more configuration parameters of a photovoltaic (PV) installation; selecting, by the computing device based on the one or more configuration parameters, a prototype PV installation from a plurality of prototype PV installations; generating, by the computing device, a clear-sky solar power generation level for the selected prototype PV installation; and scaling, by the computing device, the clear-sky solar power generation level for the selected prototype PV installation to generate an estimated clear-sky solar power generation level for the PV installation.