Marketplace Query Detection Using Causal Low-Inventory Modeling
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Solution Overview
Problem
Online marketplaces face challenges in identifying search queries with insufficient inventory, leading to poor user experience and missed booking opportunities due to the complexity of user search sessions and the confounding effect of user intent on the relationship between search results and booking outcomes.
Innovation Solution
Employing a causal inference approach paired with predictive modeling to identify searches with low inventory states (LIS) by estimating the incremental effect of additional search results on booking conversion, using Poisson regression and boosted regression trees to model the relationship between query parameters and search results.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If traditional search result counting methods are used, then the system is simple to implement, but it cannot accurately identify under-served queries due to confounding effects of user intent and search session complexity
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces a causal inference model as an intermediary between the search system and the identification process. This model uses propensity scores to mediate the relationship between search queries and outcomes, allowing accurate identification of under-served queries while accounting for user intent and session complexity without requiring direct observation of confounding factors
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces traditional mechanical counting methods with a statistical modeling approach. Instead of simply counting search results, the system uses causal inference models, propensity score matching, and predictive modeling to identify under-served queries, substituting a complex statistical mechanism for a simple counting mechanism to achieve higher precision
2Loss of information
If the system monitors all user search sessions in detail, then it can gather comprehensive data for analysis, but it increases processing complexity and computational resources required
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts only the essential elements needed for causal inference from complete search session data. Instead of processing all detailed user interactions, the system extracts key variables such as query characteristics, search result counts, and conversion outcomes, thereby maintaining data completeness for analysis while reducing processing complexity
Solution Approach 2:
The patent performs preliminary aggregation and filtering of search session data before detailed analysis. By pre-processing data to identify relevant patterns and characteristics upfront, the system reduces the complexity of subsequent causal inference operations while preserving the information needed for accurate identification of under-served queries
Data Source
AI summary
Systems and methods are provided to generate an actual number of search results, a total estimated number of search results based on historical search data in the online marketplace, and a conversion estimated number of search results for users who converted, for a given set of query parameters in an online marketplace. The systems and methods generates a low inventory state metrics based on determining a first probability of getting the actual number of search results plus one given the conversion number of search results, a second probability of getting the actual number of results given the total estimated number of search results, a third probability of getting the actual number of search results given the conversion number of search results and a fourth probability of getting the actual number of search results plus one given the total estimated number of search results


