Marketplace Query Detection Using Causal Low-Inventory Modeling

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Solution Overview

Problem

Online marketplaces face challenges in identifying search queries with insufficient inventory, leading to poor user experience and missed booking opportunities due to the complexity of user search sessions and the confounding effect of user intent on the relationship between search results and booking outcomes.

Innovation Solution

Employing a causal inference approach paired with predictive modeling to identify searches with low inventory states (LIS) by estimating the incremental effect of additional search results on booking conversion, using Poisson regression and boosted regression trees to model the relationship between query parameters and search results.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional search result counting methods are used, then the system is simple to implement, but it cannot accurately identify under-served queries due to confounding effects of user intent and search session complexity

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveaccuracy of identifying under-served queriesVSAvoidcomplexity of the identification system
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent introduces a causal inference model as an intermediary between the search system and the identification process. This model uses propensity scores to mediate the relationship between search queries and outcomes, allowing accurate identification of under-served queries while accounting for user intent and session complexity without requiring direct observation of confounding factors

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces traditional mechanical counting methods with a statistical modeling approach. Instead of simply counting search results, the system uses causal inference models, propensity score matching, and predictive modeling to identify under-served queries, substituting a complex statistical mechanism for a simple counting mechanism to achieve higher precision

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Loss of information

If the system monitors all user search sessions in detail, then it can gather comprehensive data for analysis, but it increases processing complexity and computational resources required

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecompleteness of search session dataVSAvoidprocessing complexity of search data
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of informationVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts only the essential elements needed for causal inference from complete search session data. Instead of processing all detailed user interactions, the system extracts key variables such as query characteristics, search result counts, and conversion outcomes, thereby maintaining data completeness for analysis while reducing processing complexity

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent performs preliminary aggregation and filtering of search session data before detailed analysis. By pre-processing data to identify relevant patterns and characteristics upfront, the system reduces the complexity of subsequent causal inference operations while preserving the information needed for accurate identification of under-served queries

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Data Source

PatentUS12632800B2Under-served query identification system
Publication Date: 2026.05.19 AIRBNB INC
  • US12632800B2 patent drawing
  • US12632800B2 patent drawing
  • US12632800B2 patent drawing

AI summary

Systems and methods are provided to generate an actual number of search results, a total estimated number of search results based on historical search data in the online marketplace, and a conversion estimated number of search results for users who converted, for a given set of query parameters in an online marketplace. The systems and methods generates a low inventory state metrics based on determining a first probability of getting the actual number of search results plus one given the conversion number of search results, a second probability of getting the actual number of results given the total estimated number of search results, a third probability of getting the actual number of search results given the conversion number of search results and a fourth probability of getting the actual number of search results plus one given the total estimated number of search results