Real-Time Win Probability Calculation for Sports Betting
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current probability calculators are ineffective for bettors interested in aspects of a game other than the outcome, as they provide irrelevant information, failing to offer relevant and accurate probabilities for various types of wagers.
Innovation Solution
A computer program product that generates a win probability model using historical data, compares user wagers with live in-game data, and calculates real-time winning probabilities, allowing users to adjust their betting strategies effectively.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of information
If current probability calculators are used to calculate game outcome odds, then the calculation process is simple, but the information provided is irrelevant to bettors who wager on aspects other than game outcome
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments probability calculation by bet type, creating specialized calculators for different wager categories (moneyline, spread, totals, player props, team props). Each segment handles specific betting aspects, ensuring relevant probability information is provided for each bet type without requiring a single complex universal system.
Solution Approach 2:
The system creates a universal probability calculation platform that handles multiple bet types through a standardized architecture. The multi-functional system can calculate probabilities for various wager types using consistent methodologies, eliminating information relevance issues while avoiding the complexity of separate dedicated systems for each bet type.
2Measurement precision
If probability calculators provide general game outcome probabilities, then the system is easy to operate, but the probabilities are not accurate for specific wager types
Solution Approach 1:
The system dynamically adapts probability calculation methods based on the selected bet type. When a user selects a specific wager type, the system automatically applies the appropriate calculation methodology and data sources, providing accurate probabilities without requiring users to manually configure complex parameters. This dynamic adaptation maintains ease of operation while achieving measurement precision.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes calculation parameters based on bet type specifications. Different wager types trigger different parameter sets (e.g., team strength metrics for spread bets, scoring rate data for totals, player performance metrics for props). This parameter adaptation ensures accurate probabilities for each wager type while the system automatically manages the complexity, maintaining ease of operation for users.
Data Source
AI summary
A system, method, and electronic online platform provide a probability of a wager winning in real-time updates as live in-game data is provided to a model calculating a current probability of winning based on historical betting data.