Remaining Time Estimation With Reliability for Uncertain System States
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for predicting the remaining time value of a system, such as a traffic signal system, fail to account for situational uncertainty, leading to unreliable and imprecise forecasts that lack a clear reliability measure.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method using an error function to determine a remaining time value and its associated reliability score, based on historical input data, employing asymmetric error functions to estimate quantiles and provide precise and efficient predictions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of energy
If a fixed time value is allocated for each message type, then resource allocation is simple, but resources are wasted when messages are transmitted faster than expected
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies dynamics by transitioning from fixed time allocation to dynamic time adaptation. The remaining time value is initially set based on historical data and is continuously adjusted according to actual transmission performance feedback. This allows the system to adapt time resources dynamically to match actual message transmission speeds, reducing waste while maintaining efficient resource management.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements feedback mechanisms where the actual transmission time of messages is monitored and used to adjust the remaining time value for subsequent messages. The system compares expected transmission time with actual transmission time and modifies the time allocation accordingly, creating a closed-loop control system that optimizes resource usage based on real performance data.
2Measurement precision
If the scheduler is blocked during time determination, then measurement can be accurate, but system responsiveness deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by determining the remaining time value in advance, before the message transmission actually begins. The scheduler calculates and sets the remaining time value during idle periods or before scheduling events, so that when transmission needs to start, the time value is already prepared and no blocking occurs. This eliminates the conflict between accurate measurement and system responsiveness.
3Productivity
If historical data is used to set remaining time value, then resource allocation efficiency improves, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies parameter changes by using historical transmission data to dynamically adjust the remaining time value parameter. Instead of using fixed or manually configured time values, the system automatically modifies this parameter based on patterns observed in historical message transmission performance, thereby improving resource allocation efficiency through data-driven optimization.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements self-service by enabling the system to automatically manage and update its own time allocation parameters using its own historical performance data. The scheduler independently analyzes its transmission patterns and adjusts remaining time values without external intervention, reducing the need for complex external configuration management while improving efficiency.
Data Source
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AI summary
The invention relates to a computer-implemented method for determining at least one remaining time value, to be determined, for a system, having the following steps: a. providing at least one known input data record containing a multiplicity of input elements for at least one determined time (S1); b. providing at least one associated known remaining time value for the at least one input data record (S2); c. determining the at least one remaining time value to be determined by applying an error function to the at least one input data record and the at least one associated remaining time value (S3); and d. providing an output data record containing the at least one determined remaining time value and an associated reliability value (S4). The invention furthermore targets a corresponding determination unit and computer program product.