Retrospective Production Planning for Refinery Deviation Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
In large-scale petroleum refineries, deviations often occur between planned and actual operations due to unplanned events, making it difficult to analyze production performance effectively.
Innovation Solution
A system that generates a retrospective production plan using a planning model to reflect unplanned events, allowing for analysis of production performance based on both initial and retrospective plans, thereby optimizing production control.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If a production plan is generated using a planning model, then production control is established, but deviations occur due to unplanned events that cannot be accounted for at planning time
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by generating multiple retrospective plans in advance, each reflecting different unplanned events that could occur. These plans are prepared before actual deviations happen, allowing the system to quickly select an appropriate plan when unplanned events occur, thus maintaining reliability while adapting to changes.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically adjusts the production plan by selecting from multiple pre-generated retrospective plans based on actual unplanned events. Instead of a static plan, the system transitions between different plan scenarios (original plan, and multiple retrospective plans reflecting different events), enabling adaptive response while maintaining structured control.
2Loss of information
If multiple retrospective plans are generated to reflect different unplanned events, then analysis capability is improved, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments the analysis by generating multiple retrospective plans, each focusing on a specific unplanned event. This segmentation allows detailed analysis of each event's impact on production performance while maintaining manageable complexity through structured organization of separate plan scenarios.
Solution Approach 2:
The system creates copies of the planning model to generate multiple retrospective plans. Each copy reflects a different unplanned event scenario, enabling comprehensive analysis without requiring a completely new complex system. The copying approach maintains consistency while exploring different possibilities.
3Measurement precision
If the production plan is adjusted to reflect unplanned events, then operational accuracy is improved, but the time required for plan generation increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary action by pre-generating multiple retrospective plans covering various unplanned events before they occur. When an actual event happens, the system can immediately select the appropriate pre-generated plan, achieving accurate measurement without time-consuming recalculation.
Solution Approach 2:
The system prepares multiple retrospective plan scenarios in advance as a cushion against unplanned events. This beforehand preparation ensures that when deviations occur, accurate analysis can be performed immediately using pre-computed plans, rather than waiting for time-consuming recalculations.
Data Source
AI summary
It is rare for the operation of the production site to proceed according to the initially formulated plan, and many deviations occur between the actual operation and the plan. Accordingly, the performance of the production site is preferably analyzed while considering these deviations. Provided is a system including a planning section that generates a production plan for controlling a production site during a target interval, using a planning model; a retrospective planning section that generates a retrospective plan, which is a production plan that retrospectively reflects at least one of unplanned events that occurred after generation of the production plan, using the planning model; and an analyzing section that analyzes production performance of the production site during the target interval, based on the production plan and the retrospective plan.