Return Rate Evaluation Using Delayed Conversion Adjustment
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing return evaluation methods for content delivery plans are inaccurate due to delayed conversion feedback, leading to errors in real-time effect evaluation and resource allocation.
Innovation Solution
A method and apparatus for return evaluation that adjusts return rate metrics using return adjustment coefficients to account for delayed revenue returns, ensuring accurate target return rate metrics are determined by considering potential future revenue.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If return rate metrics are calculated using only current cost and revenue data, then real-time evaluation speed is improved, but measurement precision deteriorates due to delayed conversion feedback
Solution Approach 1:
The system pre-calculates and stores return adjustment coefficients based on historical conversion data before they are needed for evaluation. When evaluating current content delivery plans, these pre-computed coefficients are applied to current return rate metrics to compensate for delayed conversion feedback, thus achieving both real-time speed and improved accuracy without waiting for all conversion data to return
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces return adjustment coefficients as an intermediary factor that mediates between current incomplete return rate metrics and the true eventual return rate. These coefficients, derived from historical patterns of conversion feedback delays, adjust the current metrics to estimate what the final return rate will be, thereby resolving the contradiction between using current data for speed and waiting for complete data for accuracy
2Measurement precision
If wait for complete revenue returning period to evaluate return rate, then measurement precision is improved, but loss of time increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary analysis of historical revenue returning patterns to pre-compute return adjustment coefficients for different time points and content types. This preliminary action enables the system to immediately apply appropriate adjustment factors to current return rate metrics without waiting for the complete revenue returning period to elapse, thus achieving accurate evaluation in real-time
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies partial action by using return adjustment coefficients that account for only the portion of revenue that is expected to return within a given time frame, rather than waiting for 100% of potential revenue to return. This allows evaluation to proceed with sufficiently accurate data without the excessive time loss of waiting for complete revenue cycles
3Measurement precision
If use return adjustment coefficients to compensate for delayed feedback, then measurement precision is improved, but device complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements self-service by automatically computing return adjustment coefficients from its own historical conversion data and revenue returning patterns. The evaluation system uses its accumulated historical data to generate the adjustment factors it needs, without requiring external calibration or manual intervention, thus managing the increased complexity through automation rather than manual processes
Data Source
AI summary
According to embodiments of the disclosure, a method and apparatus for return evaluation, a device and a storage medium are provided. The method includes: obtaining at least one return rate metric of a content delivery plan at at least one time point; obtaining at least one return adjustment coefficient for the at least one time point of the content delivery plan; adjusting the at least one return rate metric respectively with the at least one return adjustment coefficient, to obtain at least one adjusted return rate metric; and determining a target return rate metric for the content delivery plan based on the at least one adjusted return rate metric, the target return rate metric indicating a return rate metric that can be reached upon expiration of a revenue returning period after consuming a cost at the at least one time point.