Road Condition Prediction Using Bayesian Classification

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current road condition prediction methods are inaccurate as they solely rely on vehicle traveling speed, neglecting other influential factors such as location, time, and road segment characteristics, leading to incorrect classification of road conditions.

Innovation Solution

A method and device for predicting road condition status using historical road segment information, which includes obtaining occurrence and conditional probabilities of classification events to comprehensively predict road conditions by employing a Bayesian classification formula, considering multiple factors like traveling speed, road level, city, and special sectors.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Device complexity

If road condition status is predicted only according to travelling speed, then the prediction method is simple, but the predicted road condition status is inaccurate

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction method complexityVSAvoidroad condition status prediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Device complexityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent transforms the prediction approach by changing from a single parameter (travelling speed) to multiple parameters including travelling speed, road segment characteristics, time features, and location information. This parameter expansion resolves the contradiction by incorporating more comprehensive data dimensions while maintaining computational feasibility through structured feature engineering and probability-based classification.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent creates a composite prediction model that integrates multiple independent factors (speed, road characteristics, temporal features, spatial location) into a unified road condition status prediction system. This composite approach combines diverse data sources and feature types to achieve more accurate and reliable predictions compared to single-factor methods.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #40Composite materials

2Measurement precision

If multiple factors are considered for road condition prediction, then prediction accuracy is improved, but the calculation complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveroad condition status prediction accuracyVSAvoidcalculation complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the complex prediction problem into independent feature dimensions (travelling speed features, road segment characteristics, time features, location information). Each segment is processed and evaluated separately, then integrated through probability multiplication. This segmentation reduces computational complexity by avoiding complex interactions between features while maintaining comprehensive analysis.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces probability values as intermediary representations for each classification event. Instead of directly complexly interacting multiple factors, the system converts each factor into a probability score that serves as an intermediary, then combines these intermediaries through multiplication to achieve the final prediction. This intermediary approach simplifies the integration of multiple factors.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Data Source

PatentUS11305780B2Road condition status prediction method, device, and server, and storage medium
Publication Date: 2022.04.19 TENCENT TECHNOLOGY (SHENZHEN) CO LTD
  • US11305780B2 patent drawing
  • US11305780B2 patent drawing
  • US11305780B2 patent drawing

AI summary

A road condition status prediction method is performed by a server and includes obtaining historical road segment information, the historical road segment information including road condition statuses and classification events that are used to classify the road condition statuses, and the classification events being determined based on content of the classification events, and obtaining an occurrence probability of each of the classification events, based on the obtained historical road segment information. The road condition status prediction method further includes obtaining a conditional probability of each of the classification events in each of the road condition statuses, based on the obtained historical road segment information, and predicting a road condition status of a road segment, based on the obtained occurrence probability of each of the classification events and the obtained conditional probability of each of the classification events in each of the road condition statuses.