Rocket Conjunction Risk Assessment via Susceptibility Volumes
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Solution Overview
Problem
There is a growing concern about the risk of rocket launches colliding with low earth orbiting satellites, either accidentally or intentionally, posing a threat to life and property, and existing technologies lack effective methods to assess and mitigate this risk.
Innovation Solution
The development of systems and methods to create visual representations of the accessibility of orbiting and non-orbiting platforms to rockets launched from earth-based platforms, using assessment tools to determine access opportunities for ground-, sea-, and air-launched rockets, and generating geometric models and footprints to alert operators of potential risks.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If visual representation systems are implemented to assess rocket accessibility to orbiting platforms, then collision risk assessment capability is improved, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments the assessment process into distinct functional modules: access determination module that evaluates rocket accessibility to target platforms, susceptibility volume generation module that creates three-dimensional risk zones, and display construct generation module that visualizes assessment results. This modular segmentation improves reliability by allowing each module to be independently validated while managing overall system complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system introduces geometric models and display constructs as intermediary representations between raw trajectory data and collision risk assessment. These intermediaries (susceptibility volumes, access region footprints, visual display constructs) simplify complex multi-dimensional trajectory intersections into interpretable graphical formats, enhancing assessment capability without proportionally increasing system complexity.
2Measurement precision
If comprehensive access determination for multiple trajectory types is performed, then assessment accuracy is improved, but computational time increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary calculations of susceptibility volumes and access regions before actual collision risk assessment. By pre-computing three-dimensional geometric models of rocket access regions and target platform susceptibility volumes, the system prepares assessment data in advance, enabling rapid accuracy evaluation when actual trajectory intersections need to be determined.
Solution Approach 2:
The system transforms complex temporal trajectory intersection problems into spatial geometric volume intersection problems. By representing rocket access regions as three-dimensional susceptibility volumes and target platforms as geometric objects in space, the system can assess collision risk across multiple trajectory types simultaneously through spatial relationships rather than sequential temporal analysis, improving accuracy while reducing computational time.
Data Source
AI summary
A system and method for assessing the risk of conjunction of a rocket body with orbiting and non-orbiting platforms. Two-body orbital dynamics are used to initially determine the kinematic access for a ballistic vehicle. The access may be represented in two ways: as a volume relative to its launcher and also as a geographical footprint relative to a target position that encompasses all possible launcher locations.