Roundabout Exit Prediction Using Route-Based Vehicle Trajectories
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Solution Overview
Problem
There is a need for a method to ascertain the probability of a motor vehicle leaving a road junction, particularly a roundabout, to assist drivers in making informed decisions.
Innovation Solution
A method involving receiving trajectory data, classifying vehicle trajectories based on previous routes, and assigning turn probabilities to trajectory classes, which are then used to predict the likelihood of a vehicle exiting at a specific junction exit.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If trajectory data is collected and classified into multiple trajectory classes based on previous routes, then the prediction accuracy of turn probability is improved, but the system complexity and data processing requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments trajectory data into multiple trajectory classes based on previous routes (e.g., entering from different directions, different numbers of entrances passed). This segmentation allows the system to handle diverse driving scenarios separately, improving prediction accuracy for each class while maintaining overall system manageability through structured classification.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary classification of trajectories into different classes before calculating turn probabilities. By pre-organizing the data into trajectory classes based on previous routes, the system prepares the data structure in advance, which simplifies the subsequent probability calculation process and improves computational efficiency.
2Reliability
If trajectory data from multiple motor vehicles is processed to determine turn probabilities for each trajectory class, then the reliability of the prediction is improved, but the amount of data processing and computational effort increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges trajectory data from multiple motor vehicles into unified trajectory classes. By combining data from multiple sources (different vehicles, similar routes) into consolidated classes, the system increases the sample size for each class, improving statistical reliability while reducing the need to process every individual trajectory separately.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the parameter of data organization from individual trajectory records to aggregated trajectory classes. By transitioning from processing individual vehicle trajectories to processing classified trajectory groups, the system maintains reliability through aggregated statistical data while improving processing efficiency through reduced data volume.
Data Source
AI summary
A method for ascertaining a turn probability that a motor vehicle will leave a road junction, in particular a roundabout, including a plurality of exits and one or more entrances, at an exit of the road junction. The method includes: receiving trajectory data comprising a plurality of trajectories of motor vehicles crossing the road junction; ascertaining trajectories of motor vehicles passing the one exit from the plurality of trajectories, wherein passing includes leaving or driving past the one exit; classifying the ascertained trajectories based on a particular previous route of the motor vehicles corresponding to the ascertained trajectories before the one exit to obtain a plurality of trajectory classes, each of which includes ascertained trajectories having the same previous route; ascertaining, for each trajectory class, a particular turn probability that a motor vehicle will leave the road junction at the one exit, based on the respectively ascertained trajectories.