Route Planning Reliability via Link Variance Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
Traditional route planning systems do not provide reliability of passing time, which is the probability of completing a journey within a certain time frame, making it difficult for users to choose the most suitable path based on their priorities, such as time or reliability.
Innovation Solution
A system that determines a reliability of passing time for each candidate path by calculating the estimated travel time cost and variance for each link, constructing a normal distribution based on these values, and displaying the path along with its reliability to the user terminal.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of information
If traditional route planning systems only provide passing time without reliability information, then the system complexity is low, but the user decision-making quality deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments the route into multiple links and calculates reliability for each link separately based on historical travel time data. By dividing the overall route reliability calculation into smaller link-level computations, the system can provide comprehensive reliability information without overwhelming computational complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system pre-calculates and stores historical travel time data and statistical parameters (mean, variance) for each link before the actual route planning query. This preliminary preparation of data allows the system to quickly compute reliability metrics when a route planning request is made, avoiding complex real-time calculations.
2Reliability
If the system calculates and provides reliability of passing time for each path, then user decision-making quality improves, but the calculation complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system uses historical travel time data that has been independently collected and stored for each link. By leveraging this pre-existing historical data, the system can compute reliability metrics without requiring complex real-time monitoring or external data sources during the route planning process.
Solution Approach 2:
The system replaces complex real-time traffic monitoring and prediction mechanisms with statistical calculations based on historical data. Instead of using sophisticated mechanical or sensor-based systems to predict travel time reliability, the patent uses mathematical statistics (mean, variance, normal distribution) to compute reliability metrics.
3Loss of information
If the system provides detailed reliability calculations for multiple candidate paths, then information completeness improves, but processing time increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system divides the route into multiple links and calculates reliability for each link independently. This segmentation allows parallel computation of reliability metrics for different links and candidate paths, reducing overall processing time while maintaining complete information.
Solution Approach 2:
The system calculates reliability metrics for multiple candidate paths simultaneously, providing more information than a single optimal path would give. By computing statistics for several plausible routes in parallel using the segmented link approach, the system delivers comprehensive information without proportionally increasing processing time.
Data Source
AI summary
The present disclosure relates to systems and methods for providing a reliability of passing time for a path in route planning. The methods may include obtaining a route planning request from a user terminal; determining a plurality of candidate paths; determining a first estimated travel time cost and a first variance for each link of a target candidate path; determining a second estimated travel time cost for the target candidate path based on the first estimated travel time cost of each link; determining a second variance for the target candidate path based on the first variance associated with each link of the target candidate path; determining a reliability of passing time for the target candidate path based on the second estimated travel time cost and the second variance; and directing the user terminal to display the target candidate path with the reliability of passing time.