Runway Magnetic Alignment Forecasting for Declination Change Planning

Solution Overview

Problem

Current methods for predicting changes in airport runway magnetic alignments are inadequate due to rapid migration of the Earth's magnetic poles, leading to potential runway incursions and the need for frequent updates, which are costly and time-consuming, especially as the World Magnetic Model's accuracy thresholds are exceeded before planned updates.

Innovation Solution

A novel method using the predicted trajectory of the Earth's eccentric geomagnetic axial pole to calculate future changes in magnetic alignment, allowing for advanced notification and preparation for runway name changes, thereby maintaining accuracy and safety without the fiscal burden of frequent updates.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If the World Magnetic Model is updated frequently to maintain accuracy, then the reliability of runway magnetic alignment is improved, but the cost and time required for updates increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveaccuracy of runway magnetic alignmentVSAvoidtime for updates

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by predicting future magnetic alignment changes before they occur. The system calculates projected runway magnetic alignments for future dates, allowing authorities to prepare and execute updates at optimal times rather than reacting to accuracy degradation. This proactive approach maintains reliability while minimizing the frequency and timing of actual updates.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements dynamics by creating a living prediction system that continuously models magnetic pole migration and calculates evolving runway alignments. The system dynamically adjusts predictions based on observed migration rates and provides updated alignment data for various future time horizons, enabling flexible planning and timing of runway name changes to optimize between accuracy maintenance and update frequency.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #15Dynamics

2Reliability

If the World Magnetic Model is updated frequently to maintain accuracy, then the reliability of runway magnetic alignment is improved, but the financial cost of updates increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveaccuracy of runway magnetic alignmentVSAvoidfinancial cost of updates

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSLoss of energy

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by predicting future magnetic alignment changes before they occur. The system calculates projected runway magnetic alignments for future dates, allowing authorities to prepare and execute updates at optimal times rather than reacting to accuracy degradation. This proactive approach maintains reliability while minimizing the frequency and timing of actual updates.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements dynamics by creating a living prediction system that continuously models magnetic pole migration and calculates evolving runway alignments. The system dynamically adjusts predictions based on observed migration rates and provides updated alignment data for various future time horizons, enabling flexible planning and timing of runway name changes to optimize between accuracy maintenance and update frequency.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #15Dynamics

3Reliability

If runway names are changed frequently to maintain accuracy, then the safety against runway incursions is improved, but the operational disruption increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvesafety against runway incursionsVSAvoidoperational efficiency

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by predicting future magnetic alignment changes before they occur. The system calculates projected runway magnetic alignments for future dates, allowing authorities to plan and coordinate name changes with minimal operational disruption. Stakeholders can prepare in advance, reducing last-minute changes that would disrupt flight operations and improve overall productivity.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements dynamics by creating a living prediction system that continuously models magnetic pole migration and calculates evolving runway alignments. The system dynamically adjusts predictions based on observed migration rates and provides updated alignment data for various future time horizons, enabling flexible planning and timing of runway name changes to optimize between accuracy maintenance and update frequency.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #15Dynamics

Data Source

PatentUS11454737B1Predicting the future magnetic alignment of a runway

Publication Date: 2022.09.27 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THE AS REPRESENTED BY THE SEC OF THE ARMY

AI summary

Disclosed is a method for predicting the future magnetic alignment of a runway. Extrapolating from previous historical records, the future trajectory of the Earth's eccentric geomagnetic axial pole (“ED”) is predicted. With that predicted trajectory as the basis, the future azimuthal change between the location of the ED and the location of an airfield is calculated. At the location of the airfield, a future change in the declination between true north and geomagnetic north is then calculated based on the predicted azimuthal change. The predicted change in declination then becomes the predicted change in magnetic alignment of any runway at the airfield. By predicting future changes in the magnetic alignment of a runway, preparations for changing the name of the runway can be made.