Runway Risk Prediction Using Ensemble Weather Data
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current weather forecast systems for airports lack the ability to provide easily interpretable risk information for flight scheduling, particularly for medium-term or long-term intervals, and do not account for different aircraft types or sub-intervals, leading to difficulties in generating accurate flight schedules.
Innovation Solution
A system and method that predicts risk levels associated with future weather conditions at airport runways by using meteorological forecast data to generate a graphical user interface displaying risk indicators for various aircraft types and time sub-intervals, enabling air traffic controllers and flight dispatchers to compare risks and schedule flights effectively.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If deterministic model output is used, then a single predicted value is provided, but information about likelihood and risk is lost
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the forecast data by dividing it into multiple ensemble members, each representing a different possible weather outcome with associated probabilities. This segmentation allows the system to preserve risk information by showing multiple possible scenarios rather than a single deterministic value, enabling users to assess both the most likely outcome and the range of possible deviations.
2Loss of information
If ensemble prediction system data is used, then multiple predicted values are provided, but the output becomes confusing and difficult to interpret
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies color-coding to visual elements in the user interface to represent different risk levels and probability ranges. By mapping numerical forecast data to intuitive color schemes (e.g., green for low risk, yellow for moderate risk, red for high risk), the system transforms complex ensemble data into easily interpretable visual information that air traffic controllers can quickly understand without needing to analyze raw numerical data.
3Measurement precision
If current forecast systems provide short-term intervals, then detailed predictions are available, but medium-term or long-term scheduling is not enabled
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements a dynamic forecast system that adjusts the time interval and level of detail based on the user's scheduling needs. The system can display detailed short-term predictions when needed while also providing aggregated medium-term and long-term forecasts for scheduling purposes. This dynamic adaptation allows the same system to serve both detailed operational needs and strategic planning requirements without compromise.
4Adaptability or versatility
If forecast data is provided without aircraft type differentiation, then general weather predictions are available, but aircraft-specific risk assessment is not possible
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies local quality by customizing the forecast information according to specific aircraft types and their unique characteristics. The system incorporates aircraft-specific parameters such as wing loading, stall speed, and crosswind limitations to tailor the risk assessment for each aircraft type. This allows the same weather forecast to be evaluated differently for different aircraft, providing precise, aircraft-specific risk information while maintaining general applicability across multiple aircraft types.
Data Source
AI summary
A method includes receiving meteorological forecast data at an electronic device. The method includes predicting multiple risk levels associated with an aircraft using one or more runways of an airport during a forecast time interval based on the meteorological forecast data. The method further includes generating a graphical user interface (GUI) that includes multiple risk indicators based on the multiple risk levels. The multiple risk indicators may correspond to multiple time sub-intervals during the forecast time interval.