Service Group Capacity Planning Using Aggregate Risk Metrics
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Solution Overview
Problem
Cable modems in a service group often face bandwidth shortages due to simultaneous high demand, leading to customer dissatisfaction and costly, time-consuming physical adjustments to increase capacity, which are difficult to predict and optimize.
Innovation Solution
A computing system analyzes historical utilization data to determine an additional bandwidth requirement based on an aggregate risk metric, using statistical methods to quantify the probability of bandwidth exceedance, enabling proactive adjustments to meet utilization demands.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Quantity of substance
If physical adjustments are made to increase service group capacity, then bandwidth capacity is improved, but implementation time and cost increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary analysis of utilization patterns and proactively determines capacity requirements before bandwidth shortages occur. By analyzing historical utilization data and calculating aggregate risk metrics in advance, the system enables proactive capacity planning, allowing bandwidth upgrades to be scheduled during off-peak periods rather than requiring immediate physical adjustments during service disruptions.
2Quantity of substance
If physical adjustments are made to increase service group capacity, then bandwidth capacity is improved, but cost increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system changes the parameter of capacity planning from reactive to proactive by introducing aggregate risk metric calculations. By continuously monitoring utilization patterns and predicting future capacity requirements, the system optimizes the timing and magnitude of capacity upgrades, ensuring that physical adjustments are made only when necessary and at the most cost-effective moments, rather than responding to expensive service disruptions.
3Reliability
If service group bandwidth is increased, then utilization demand is met, but device complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system enables self-service capacity planning by automatically collecting utilization data, analyzing patterns, calculating aggregate risk metrics, and determining optimal capacity requirements without manual intervention. The automated system monitors service group utilization, performs statistical analysis, and generates capacity recommendations, reducing the complexity burden on network operators while ensuring reliable service provision.
4Measurement precision
If aggregate risk metric analysis is performed, then capacity determination accuracy is improved, but computational requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies partial action by focusing computational resources on analyzing only the critical aggregate utilization patterns rather than every individual modem's traffic. By calculating aggregate risk metrics at service group level using statistical methods and historical data sampling, the system achieves sufficient capacity determination accuracy without performing exhaustive analysis of all traffic flows, thus optimizing computational resource usage.
Data Source
AI summary
A computing system accesses actual aggregate service group utilization values that correspond to ones of a plurality of intervals over a first period of time and that identify an aggregate service group bandwidth utilization by cable modems in a service group at a plurality of intervals, the first period of time including multiple second periods of time having a same time duration, each second period of time having I ordinal intervals, and estimated aggregate service group utilization values that correspond to the actual aggregate service group utilization values. The computing system determines an additional bandwidth quantity for the service group such that an aggregate probability over a predetermined period of time that the plurality of cable modems will exceed a current provisioned bandwidth of the service group and the additional bandwidth quantity is within a desired probability range. A computing system sends, to a destination, the additional bandwidth quantity.


