Site-Specific Risk Assessment for Process Device Malfunctions
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Current risk assessment methods for steam plants do not effectively account for the influence of installation site environments on the likelihood of malfunction of process devices, making it difficult to identify sites that significantly impact device reliability.
Innovation Solution
A risk assessment device and method that compares the malfunction ratio, which reflects the site-specific environment, with the general probability of malfunction, allowing for the identification of installation sites that substantially affect device reliability by calculating a risk index value when the malfunction ratio exceeds the probability by a predetermined margin.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If the likelihood of malfunction is determined focusing on the installation site environment, then the assessment reflects site-specific influences, but it becomes unclear whether the determined likelihood is actually affected by the installation site
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements feedback by comparing the site-specific malfunction ratio with the general probability of malfunction from the calculation model. This comparison provides feedback on whether the installation site environment actually influences device reliability, allowing the system to identify and flag sites where the malfunction ratio significantly deviates from the general probability, thus resolving the uncertainty about site influence
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces a new parameter (malfunction ratio based on actual diagnosis results at the installation site) to compare against the general probability of malfunction. By changing from using only theoretical probability to incorporating actual observed malfunction ratios, the system can quantitatively assess whether installation site environment affects device reliability
2Ease of manufacture
If general probability of malfunction is used for risk assessment, then the assessment is based on theoretical models, but it does not reflect site-specific environmental influences
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges two approaches: the general probability of malfunction from calculation models and the site-specific malfunction ratio from actual diagnosis results. By combining these two methods, the system maintains the simplicity of theoretical modeling while incorporating real-world site-specific data, thus improving reliability without significantly increasing complexity
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies partial action by selectively using site-specific data only for installations where the malfunction ratio significantly differs from the general probability. For installations where the ratio is comparable, the general probability suffices, thus avoiding unnecessary complexity while improving accuracy where needed
Data Source
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3~4
AI summary
A risk assessment device includes a diagnosis result storage unit that accumulatively stores diagnosis results of a plurality of diagnoses regarding each process device in association with installation sites of the process devices, a calculation model storage unit (334) that stores a calculation model for calculating a probability of malfunction of a process device, a malfunction ratio calculation unit (335) that calculates, based on diagnosis results regarding process devices that are and have been provided at a target installation site, a malfunction ratio that is a ratio of process devices that had malfunctioned by the time a reference period had elapsed from when the process devices were installed at the target installation site, a malfunction probability calculation unit (336) that calculates, based on the calculation model, a probability of malfunction that is a probability that a process device provided at the target installation site will malfunction within the reference period, and a risk index value calculation unit (33) that calculates a risk index value of a process device provided at the target installation site, through comparison between the calculated malfunction ratio and the calculated probability of malfunction.