Vehicle Speed Prediction Using Historical Traffic Similarity
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for predicting traffic congestion are inadequate as they fail to accurately forecast road conditions in future time periods, leading to inefficient route changes by vehicles, as real-time data alone cannot account for potential changes in traffic dynamics.
Innovation Solution
A speed prediction method that determines the historical state closest to the current conditions based on weather, date, and special events, using a similarity formula to identify the most relevant historical data for predicting vehicle speeds on a road segment in the next time period, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If real-time road condition broadcast is used to guide route changes, then users can respond to current traffic status, but prediction accuracy of future road conditions deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by predicting future road conditions before they actually occur. The system uses historical traffic data, weather information, and event data to forecast speeds and congestion levels for upcoming time periods, enabling users to plan routes in advance rather than merely reacting to current conditions. This predictive capability allows proactive route selection before congestion develops.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements dynamics by continuously updating predictions with real-time data and adapting to changing conditions. The system dynamically adjusts speed predictions based on current traffic flow, weather changes, and emerging events, creating a living model that evolves with actual road conditions rather than relying on static historical patterns alone.
2Measurement precision
If historical data alone is used for prediction, then computational complexity is reduced, but prediction accuracy deteriorates due to inability to account for current conditions
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies segmentation by dividing the prediction system into distinct functional modules: historical data processing, real-time data collection, weather impact analysis, event detection, and prediction synthesis. Each module handles specific aspects of the prediction task, allowing the complex system to be managed through modular components that can be independently optimized and maintained.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements universality by creating a multi-functional prediction system that simultaneously processes multiple data types (traffic flow, weather, events), serves multiple road segments, and provides predictions for multiple future time periods. The unified platform handles diverse prediction tasks using a common architectural framework, reducing overall system complexity despite the multifaceted nature of the predictions.
3Measurement precision
If real-time data collection and processing is implemented, then prediction accuracy improves, but time consumption for prediction increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies periodic action by implementing scheduled prediction intervals and batch processing of data. Instead of continuously analyzing every incoming data point, the system collects data over defined periods, processes information at regular intervals, and generates predictions at optimized frequencies. This periodic approach balances the need for current information with the time required for accurate analysis.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses preliminary action by pre-processing and storing historical data in optimized formats before prediction is needed. Historical traffic patterns, weather correlations, and event data are pre-analyzed and organized into structures that enable rapid querying during prediction operations, reducing the time required for actual prediction computations.
Data Source
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AI summary
A speed prediction method and apparatus are disclosed. The method includes: obtaining traffic-effecting parameter information of a first road segment in a current time period (S101), wherein the traffic-effecting parameter information comprises at least one of a parameter of the effect of the current weather on the traffic, a parameter of the effect of an attribute of the current date on the traffic and a parameter of the effect of a special event on the traffic; determining a similarity between the traffic-effecting parameter information and historical traffic-effecting parameter information of the first road segment stored in a historical traffic database (S102), and determining target historical traffic-effecting parameter information according to the determined similarity (S103); and predicting a first speed of a vehicle on the first road segment in the next time period, according to a speed of a vehicle in a next time period of a time period corresponding to the target historical traffic-effecting parameter information, stored in the historical traffic database (S104).