Stacked Irradiation Forecasting for Accurate POA Solar Prediction
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current photovoltaic power generation forecasts are inaccurate due to errors in solar plane of array (POA) irradiation forecasts provided by meteorological observatories.
Innovation Solution
A method involving a stacked generalization model with a first-layer and a second-layer generalizer is used to process irradiation forecast data, where the first-layer generalizer determines intermediate forecast data and the second-layer generalizer refines it to produce accurate output forecast values, reducing server processing overhead and improving forecast accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If meteorological observatory forecast data is used directly, then the forecast process is simple, but the forecast accuracy is low
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces a stacked generalization model as an intermediary between the meteorological observatory forecast data and the final POA irradiation forecast. This model includes multiple layers of generalizers that process and refine the raw forecast data, transforming it into more accurate intermediate and final results without requiring direct modification of the meteorological observatory's forecasting systems.
Solution Approach 2:
The forecast processing is divided into multiple segments or layers: the first-layer generalizer processes the raw forecast data to produce intermediate results, and the second-layer generalizer further refines these to produce the final POA irradiation forecast. This segmentation allows each layer to specialize in specific aspects of the forecasting task, improving overall accuracy while maintaining manageable complexity.
2Measurement precision
If multiple information sources are integrated, then forecast accuracy improves, but processing overhead increases
Solution Approach 1:
The first-layer generalizer performs preliminary processing of the raw forecast data from multiple information sources, producing intermediate forecast results that are already refined. This preliminary action reduces the complexity of the subsequent second-layer processing, allowing the system to handle multiple information sources efficiently without excessive processing overhead.
Solution Approach 2:
The stacked generalization model applies multiple layers of processing (excessive action) to the forecast data, where the first-layer generalizer applies one level of refinement and the second-layer generalizer applies additional refinement. This partial application of processing at different levels achieves high accuracy while avoiding the need to process all possible data transformations exhaustively.
Data Source
AI summary
Disclosed is a method for processing an irradiation forecast. The method includes: acquiring irradiation forecast data corresponding to a target time period; calling a stacked generalization model including a first-layer generalizer and a second-layer generalizer; determining, using the first-layer generalizer, intermediate forecast data based on the irradiation forecast data corresponding to the target time period; and determining, using the second-layer generalizer, an output forecast value corresponding to the target time period based on the intermediate forecast data. In a technical solution according to an embodiment of the present disclosure, a method for processing an irradiation forecast is achieved. In addition, in a technical solution according to the embodiment of the present disclosure, intermediate forecast data outputted by the first-level generalizer acts as an input of the second-level generalizer, such that a deviation of an output result of the first-layer generalizer is reduced by the second-layer generalizer, thereby reducing processing overhead of a server while further improving the accuracy of plane of array irradiation.


