Switch Remaining Life Prediction by Filtering Rare Events
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Solution Overview
Problem
The existing methods for predicting the remaining lifetime of circuit breakers in energy distribution networks are complex and difficult to interpret, as they consider various influencing factors, including rare events that can lead to scattering of prediction values, making it challenging for operators to accurately estimate when maintenance or replacement is needed.
Innovation Solution
A method that differentiates between 'virtually constant' and 'unusual' influencing factors, using only the frequency of events that occur regularly for calculating the remaining lifetime, and accounting for the current state of aging through detection and measurement, excluding rare events from the prediction to provide a more intuitive and consistent estimation.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If all influencing factors including rare events are considered in the remaining lifetime calculation, then the prediction comprehensively accounts for all wear mechanisms, but the prediction values scatter and become difficult to interpret
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments influencing factors into two categories: 'virtually constant' factors (normal switching operations, ambient temperature, material aging) and 'unusual' factors (rare events like short circuits, vibration shocks, quality of ambient air). By separating these factors, the patent enables selective inclusion in calculations - constant factors are always considered while unusual factors are excluded, thus maintaining comprehensiveness for normal wear while improving interpretability by removing unpredictable scattering elements.
2Reliability
If rare events are included in the remaining lifetime calculation, then the prediction accounts for all potential failure modes, but the prediction values become scattered and less reliable
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts and excludes unusual influencing factors (rare events) from the remaining lifetime calculation. By removing these unpredictable factors such as rare vibration shocks, occasional short circuits, and variable ambient air quality, the patent achieves more consistent and precise prediction values while still maintaining reliability through the inclusion of constant factors that drive normal wear progression.
Data Source
AI summary
Events relevant for the service life are recorded for calculating the remaining service life of a switch. Events relevant for the service life are evaluated with respect to the frequency of their occurrence. The possibility of a future occurrence for the service life of relevant events is taken into account or not taken into account in accordance with the frequency of their occurrence for calculating the remaining service life.