Traffic Prediction Using Fill Rate Parameter

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Solution Overview

Problem

Conventional traffic prediction methods fail to accurately estimate traffic caused by both feedback and non-feedback vehicles, leading to significant estimation errors due to the lack of vehicle-navigational information for non-feedback vehicles.

Innovation Solution

A method and system that track and process feedback signals from navigational devices to determine the actual number of feedback vehicles and compute a fill rate parameter, which is then used to estimate the number of non-feedback vehicles, thereby generating a comprehensive traffic prediction for a target zone.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If conventional methods use only navigational device feedback to estimate traffic, then the measurement process is simple, but the estimation accuracy is low due to missing non-feedback vehicles

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvetraffic estimation accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent introduces an intermediary mathematical model (fill rate parameter and feedback ratio) that bridges the gap between observable feedback vehicles and unobservable non-feedback vehicles. The fill rate parameter serves as a mediator to estimate total vehicles from feedback vehicle density, while the feedback ratio acts as a scaling factor to extrapolate non-feedback vehicle numbers, thereby improving accuracy without directly observing all vehicles

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the mechanical approach of directly counting all vehicles (which would require comprehensive detection infrastructure) with a computational/mathematical approach. By using navigational device feedback as input data and applying mathematical models (fill rate calculation, feedback ratio computation), the system substitutes physical detection mechanisms with information processing to achieve accurate traffic estimation

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Reliability

If conventional methods use camera-based vehicle detection, then the system can detect vehicles visually, but the measurement precision varies with weather, illumination, and camera quality

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvedetection reliabilityVSAvoidenvironmental interference

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSObject-affected harmful factors

Solution Approach 1:

The patent substitutes camera-based optical detection with navigational device-based positional feedback. Instead of relying on visual detection that is susceptible to weather and illumination conditions, the system uses GPS/coordinates data from navigational devices that are not affected by environmental factors, thereby improving detection reliability and eliminating environmental interference

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent uses navigational device feedback as an intermediary data source that is not directly affected by environmental conditions. This intermediary feedback mechanism provides stable positional information that can be processed mathematically to estimate traffic, avoiding the harmful effects of weather, illumination, and camera quality variations

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

3Productivity

If conventional methods use human assessors to count vehicles, then the system can evaluate traffic manually, but the productivity is low and coordination is difficult for large scale implementations

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvetraffic evaluation throughputVSAvoidsystem coordination difficulty

Core Design Contradiction:

ProductivityVSEase of operation

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements a self-service system where navigational devices automatically provide feedback signals without human intervention. The system autonomously collects positional data, calculates fill rate parameters, determines feedback ratios, and generates traffic predictions, eliminating the need for human assessors and thereby dramatically improving productivity while simplifying coordination

Inventive Principle:

Principle #25Self-service

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the manual mechanical process of human vehicle counting with an automated computational system. Navigational devices automatically transmit feedback signals, and the server automatically processes this data through mathematical models to generate traffic predictions, substituting human labor with automated information processing to achieve high throughput and easy scalability

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Data Source

PatentUS10319223B2Methods and systems for generating a traffic prediction

Publication Date: 2019.06.11 Y E HUB ARMENIA LLC

AI summary

A method and server for generating a traffic prediction for a target zone is provided. The traffic is caused by feedback and non-feedback vehicles in the target zone. Feedback vehicles are associated with devices that provide signals. The method comprises: tracking signals of devices entering a sample zone which comprise coordinates of devices; processing the signals tracked for the devices, the processing comprises: determining an actual number of feedback vehicles in the sample zone; computing a fill rate parameter which is indicative of an estimated total number of vehicles in the sample zone; and determining a feedback ratio which is indicative of an estimated proportion of feedback and non-feedback vehicles in the sample zone; determining an actual number of feedback vehicles entering the target zone; and generating the traffic prediction for the target zone which is indicative of an estimated number of non-feedback vehicles causing traffic in the target zone.