Train Alighting Prediction Using Single-Station Data

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing systems require information from all stations to predict train alighting person counts, which is difficult to obtain in complex rail networks and costly to implement, especially for timely congestion management.

Innovation Solution

A train alighting person count prediction system that uses a measurement unit to collect data from a single station, including passer-by counts and train arrival/departure times, to create a prediction model for estimating alighting persons based on train intervals, allowing real-time visualization and prediction of congestion.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If information from all stations is used to predict train alighting person counts, then prediction accuracy is improved, but system complexity and infrastructure cost increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent divides the prediction system into independent station-level units, where each station predicts its own alighting counts using only local data. This segmentation eliminates the need for complex network-wide data collection while maintaining prediction capability at each individual station.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent extracts and utilizes only the essential data elements needed for prediction (passer-by counts, train arrival/departure times, train intervals) from each station, discarding the requirement for comprehensive data from all stations. This extraction approach simplifies the information requirements while preserving core prediction functionality.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

2Measurement precision

If information from all stations is collected, then prediction accuracy is improved, but infrastructure investment increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction accuracyVSAvoidinfrastructure investment
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSQuantity of substance

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts only the minimum necessary data elements (passer-by counts, train timing information) that can be obtained from existing single-station infrastructure, eliminating the need for expensive network-wide data collection systems while maintaining sufficient prediction accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent employs simple, low-cost measurement approaches at each station using existing infrastructure rather than investing in expensive, complex network-wide systems. The solution uses readily available data from basic sensors and timing devices already present at individual stations.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #27Cheap short-living objects (Disposable)

3Loss of time

If records from all automatic ticket checkers are acquired timely, then real-time prediction is achieved, but operational complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvereal-time capabilityVSAvoidoperational complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of timeVSEase of operation

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements independent real-time prediction at each station using only locally available data streams, eliminating the need for complex coordinated data collection across multiple stations. Each station operates autonomously in real-time using its own passer-by counts and train timing information.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

Each station performs its own real-time prediction using its own local data, making the system self-sufficient at the station level. This eliminates the need for complex inter-station data sharing and coordination, as each station serves its own prediction needs independently.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

Data Source

PatentEP3437955B1Train disembarking passenger number prediction system, congestion visualization and evaluation system, and riding capacity calculation system
Publication Date: 2021.04.28 HITACHI LTD
  • EP3437955B1 patent drawingFigure 1~2
  • EP3437955B1 patent drawingFigure 3~4
  • EP3437955B1 patent drawingFigure 5~7

AI summary

Provide a technique that can predict the number of persons alighting from a train at the time of arrival of the train only from information obtained within a single station in management of a congestion situation inside a railway station. A train alighting person count prediction device includes: a detection unit constituted by a person count measurement unit that measures a passer-by count in a station and a train departure/arrival detection unit that detects a departure/arrival time of a train; an arithmetic unit constituted by an alighting person count calculation unit that calculates a past train alighting person count from a past passer-by count; a train interval calculation unit that calculates an arrival interval between two trains; a prediction model creation unit that creates a prediction model of a train alighting person count using a train interval; and an alighting person count prediction unit that predicts a train alighting person count using the train interval of the train when the train arrives; a recording unit that records data used in the measurement unit and the arithmetic unit; and an output unit that outputs a prediction result of the train alighting person count.