Long-term Trajectory Prediction via Interaction Modeling

Resolve Bottlenecks,
Find Innovative Solutions
Generate Solutions

Solution Overview

Problem

Current vehicle automation systems struggle with accurate long-term trajectory prediction beyond short time horizons, as they fail to effectively model driver intent and car-environment interactions, leading to inaccurate predictions for higher automation levels.

Innovation Solution

A method involving the receipt of environment and previous state data, determination of environment and dynamic features, prediction of dynamic interactions using various interpreter models (social pooling, Bidirectional LSTM, PointNet, attention-based, and traffic rule-based), and calculation of trajectories, employing a data-driven approach with deep learning for long-term predictions.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Device complexity

If simple linear models (constant velocity model) are used for trajectory prediction, then the model complexity is low and computation is fast, but the prediction accuracy deteriorates for longer time horizons

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel complexityVSAvoidprediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Device complexityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The prediction task is segmented into multiple components: environmental feature extraction, dynamic feature extraction, interaction prediction, and trajectory generation. Each component is handled by a specialized model module, allowing the system to achieve high prediction accuracy for long time horizons while maintaining manageable complexity through modular architecture.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces an interaction model as an intermediary between the feature extraction models and the trajectory prediction. This interaction model explicitly models the semantic relationships and intent between traffic participants, serving as a mediator that captures complex behavioral patterns that simple linear models cannot predict.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Device complexity

If current environmental models are used that only model physics for very short time periods, then the model simplicity is maintained, but the ability to predict long-term trajectories deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel simplicityVSAvoidprediction time horizon
Core Design Contradiction:
Device complexityVSDuration of action of moving object

Solution Approach 1:

The patent employs dynamic feature extraction models that adapt to changing traffic scenarios and participant behaviors. The dynamic interpreter model and interaction model continuously update their predictions based on observed patterns, allowing the system to maintain accuracy over extended time horizons by dynamically adjusting to evolving environmental conditions.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The patent adds a semantic dimension to traditional physics-based models by introducing explicit modeling of driver intent and car-environment interactions. This additional dimensional layer captures behavioral patterns and semantic relationships that extend prediction capability beyond what pure physics models can achieve, enabling long-term trajectory prediction.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #17Another dimension (Dimensionality change)

3Measurement precision

If explicit modeling of driver intent and car-environment interactions is implemented, then the prediction quality for long-term trajectories improves, but the device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction qualityVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent designs multi-functional model components that perform multiple tasks. For example, the dynamic interpreter model both extracts dynamic features and infers interaction patterns, while the interaction model serves both to predict future states and to model semantic relationships. This universality reduces overall system complexity by eliminating redundant specialized modules.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The interaction model and dynamic interpreter model are designed to learn and adapt automatically from data without requiring manual configuration of complex parameters. The models self-adjust their internal representations and relationships based on observed traffic patterns, reducing the complexity burden on system designers and operators while maintaining high prediction quality.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

Data Source

PatentEP3855120A1Method for long-term trajectory prediction of traffic participants
Publication Date: 2021.07.28 ROBERT BOSCH GMBH
  • EP3855120A1 patent drawingFigure 1
  • EP3855120A1 patent drawingFigure 2~4
  • EP3855120A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Method for long-term trajectory prediction for a prediction traffic participant of a plurality of traffic participants, wherein the traffic participants are an ego-vehicle or dynamic objects around the ego-vehicle, the method comprising the steps: receiving environment data (E) from the ego-vehicle relating to the environment around the ego-vehicle; receiving previous public state data (P[t-1]) of the plurality of traffic participants relating to different states of the plurality of traffic participants in a previous time step; determining environment features (F) based on the environment data (E) by an environmental model (ME) relating to the environment of the prediction traffic participant; determining dynamic features (D) based on the previous public state data (P[t-1]) by a dynamic interpreter model (MD) relating to modelled interactions between the plurality traffic participants; predicting dynamic interactions (I) of the prediction traffic participant between the prediction traffic participant and the plurality of traffic participants based on the environmental features (F) and the dynamic feature (D) by an interaction model (MI); and determining a trajectory (T) of the prediction traffic participant based on the predicted dynamic interactions (I) and the determined environment features (F).