Trajectory Prediction Latency Compensation Aerospace
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current radar and tracking systems in airspace control face a time lag in sensor data reception, leading to inaccurate predictions of vehicle positions and attitudes, which limits traffic density and individual vehicle safety due to outdated data.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that utilize a computing system to predict future positions and attitudes of aerospace vehicles by accessing sensor data and associated latencies, updating prior distributions with state transitions, and compensating for latency, allowing for more accurate and timely trajectory predictions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If sensor data is used for trajectory prediction, then prediction can be made, but the data has time lag causing inaccuracy
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary latency compensation by calculating state transitions as functions of estimated latency before updating the particle distribution. This anticipatory adjustment corrects for the time lag inherent in sensor data, allowing the prediction system to account for delays in data reception and produce more accurate instantaneous position and attitude estimates.
2Productivity
If multiple vehicles are spaced tighter for denser traffic, then airspace capacity increases, but safety margins are reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The system uses feedback from latency estimates to continuously adjust the particle distribution and state transitions. By incorporating latency compensation into the prediction model, the system provides more reliable and accurate position predictions, which enables safer spacing calculations that support higher airspace capacity without compromising safety margins.
3Speed
If computational speed is increased, then prediction timeliness improves, but accuracy may be compromised
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary calculations of state transitions as functions of estimated latency, which are then used to update the particle distribution. This approach structures the computation to handle latency compensation efficiently, maintaining accuracy while improving computational speed by preparing correction factors in advance rather than performing complex calculations after data reception.
Data Source
AI summary
According to an embodiment herein, a method of predicting a trajectory of an aerospace vehicle comprises accessing an observation of a state of the vehicle from sensor data; and using a computing system to predict different possible future positions and attitudes of the vehicle, including using the sensor data and associated latencies to determine a set of vehicle state transitions. Each state transition in the set is computed as a function of estimated latency. The method further comprises using the computing system to update a prior distribution of the vehicle state with the state transitions. Consequently, the predicted trajectory is compensated for latency.