Public Transport Capacity Prediction Using Real-Time Boarding Data

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for predicting the capacity of public transport vehicles to accommodate boarding passengers are inadequate, particularly in real-time scenarios, and do not effectively incorporate real-time data with historical data to improve forecasting accuracy.

Innovation Solution

A method and system that combines real-time data with pre-recorded datasets to predict the capacity of public transport vehicles for boarding passengers, using automatic processes to update and display this information on stationary devices and transmit it to remote computers, incorporating sensors and cameras to measure passenger and luggage presence, and adjusting for external factors like weather and events.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If real-time data and historical data are combined to predict capacity, then prediction accuracy is improved, but system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system segments data into historical data (stored in database) and real-time data (collected by sensors), processing them through separate but coordinated modules. The prediction unit combines these segmented data sources to achieve accurate capacity forecasting while maintaining manageable system complexity through modular architecture.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The control unit acts as an intermediary that coordinates between the database, sensor units, prediction unit, and display units. This intermediary component integrates real-time sensor data with historical data from the database, enabling accurate predictions while managing system complexity through centralized coordination.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Measurement precision

If multiple sensors and cameras are used to detect passengers and luggage, then measurement precision is improved, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvepassenger detection accuracyVSAvoidsensor system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system merges multiple detection technologies (sensors and cameras) into an integrated monitoring system. The control unit consolidates data from various sensor units and camera systems, combining their detection capabilities to achieve high measurement precision while managing complexity through unified data processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #5Merging (Combining)

Solution Approach 2:

The sensor units and camera systems serve multiple functions: detecting passengers, detecting luggage, and providing real-time data for capacity prediction. This multi-functionality reduces the need for separate dedicated systems, achieving high measurement precision without proportionally increasing device complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

3Loss of information

If real-time capacity information is displayed on multiple devices, then information availability is improved, but system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveinformation availabilityVSAvoiddisplay system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of informationVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system distributes capacity information across multiple display dimensions: stationary display devices at stops and remote computer devices accessible via network. This multi-dimensional information distribution ensures high information availability while managing complexity through standardized communication protocols and centralized data management by the control unit.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #17Another dimension (Dimensionality change)

Data Source

PatentEP4270296B1Capacity prediction for public transport vehicles
Publication Date: 2025.12.10 BOHM GERRIT
  • EP4270296B1 patent drawingFigure 1~2
  • EP4270296B1 patent drawingFigure 3~4
  • EP4270296B1 patent drawingFigure 5

AI summary

A method and a computerized system programmed to carry out the method of predicting the capacity of a public-transport vehicle for passengers to board at the stop and for displaying this predicted capacity on remote computer devices or service screens is provided. The method comprises a prediction process and a data procurement process. The capacity of the public-transport vehicle for passengers to board at the stop is predicted in the prediction process by using previously measured and learned values of capacities of public-transport vehicles for passengers to board and/or previously measured and learned numbers of passengers that have alighted from public-transport vehicles at the stop. The capacity of the public-transport vehicle for passengers to board at the stop and/or the number of passengers that have alighted the public-transport vehicle at the stop are measured in the data procurement process. Thereafter, updated indications are determined out of this measured values, for example, by averaging the newly acquired numbers with a dataset of previously stored numbers and taking non-periodic traffic-relevant events into account by modifying the expectation values accordingly.