Transport Network Failure Probability Calculation

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Solution Overview

Problem

Electrical transport and distribution networks face challenges in maintaining and replacing components due to their heterogeneity and the lack of real-time condition monitoring, leading to unplanned failures and increased maintenance efforts, which affects network stability and security.

Innovation Solution

A transport and distribution network with individual components equipped with data interfaces for transmitting status data to a central evaluation device, which calculates the probability of failure based on predefined ranges, allowing for timely maintenance and reducing unnecessary exchanges, and utilizing multiple data transmission infrastructures for redundancy.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Ease of operation

If maintenance and replacement of individual components takes place at fixed time intervals, then maintenance planning is simplified, but individual components with increased risk of failure are identified too late and fail unplanned

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemaintenance planningVSAvoidnetwork stability
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The system transitions from fixed time-interval maintenance to condition-based maintenance by continuously monitoring status data parameters (temperature, load, vibration, etc.) and calculating failure probabilities dynamically. This allows maintenance to be scheduled based on actual component condition rather than predetermined time intervals, improving reliability while maintaining operational simplicity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The central evaluation device receives status data from individual components, calculates failure probabilities, and provides feedback to the network operator. This feedback loop enables proactive identification of components at risk of failure, allowing timely intervention before unplanned failures occur, thus resolving the contradiction between simplified maintenance planning and network stability.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

2Ease of operation

If individual components are exchanged or serviced at fixed intervals, then maintenance planning is simplified, but technical effort increases due to unnecessary exchanges

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemaintenance planningVSAvoidtechnical effort
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system uses real-time status data and failure probability calculations to determine when maintenance is actually needed, replacing components only when the calculated failure probability exceeds a threshold. This eliminates unnecessary maintenance activities while maintaining simple planning through automated decision support, thereby reducing technical effort without compromising maintenance planning simplicity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Measurement precision

If status data of all individual components are collected and evaluated centrally, then failure probabilities can be calculated accurately, but system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvefailure probability calculationVSAvoidcentral evaluation system
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system divides the monitoring task into segments: individual components self-measure their status data using integrated sensors, and the central evaluation device only receives and processes the already-measured data to calculate failure probabilities. This segmentation reduces the complexity of the central system while maintaining accurate failure probability calculations through distributed measurement.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

Individual components are equipped with sensors and data interfaces that automatically measure and transmit their own status data without requiring external measurement equipment. This self-service approach reduces the complexity of the central evaluation system, as it only needs to receive and process data rather than perform measurements itself, while still achieving precise failure probability calculations.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

4Reliability

If multiple data transmission infrastructures are used for status data, then system reliability is improved through redundancy, but infrastructure complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvedata transmissionVSAvoidtransmission infrastructure
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system uses multiple existing communication infrastructures (power line communication, mobile radio, satellite) that individual components may already have access to, rather than deploying dedicated monitoring infrastructure. This multi-functionality approach improves transmission reliability through redundancy while minimizing additional infrastructure complexity by leveraging existing universal communication channels.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Data Source

PatentEP3504772B1Transport and distribution network
Publication Date: 2020.07.08 SIEMENS AG
  • EP3504772B1 patent drawingFigure 1
  • EP3504772B1 patent drawingFigure 2
  • EP3504772B1 patent drawingFigure 3

AI summary

The invention relates to a transport and distribution network (100), comprising: a plurality of individual components (101-1, …, 101-n) each having a data interface (103-1, …, 103-n) for transferring status data (113) of the individual component (101-1, …, 101-n); and a central evaluating device (105) for calculating a failure probability of the individual component (101-1, …, 101-n) on the basis of the status data (113).