Typhoon trajectory prediction using curved surface distance
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current typhoon trajectory prediction methods have large azimuth ranges and significant errors due to equal division of 360 degrees into 16 directions, each 22.5 degrees, which does not accurately reflect the typhoon's true moving direction.
Innovation Solution
A method that acquires typhoon status information, including wind speed and location, and calculates the curved surface distance to predict the typhoon's true moving direction, using slicing processing and data processing to generate time difference ratio and time ratio distance information, ultimately predicting the typhoon's position.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Ease of operation
If 360 degrees is equally divided into 16 directions for typhoon trajectory prediction, then the prediction method is simple and easy to operate, but the azimuth range is large and prediction accuracy deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the typhoon movement prediction into multiple time intervals (first time interval, second time interval, etc.) and calculates movement for each segment separately. This allows the system to maintain simple directional categories while improving overall prediction accuracy by breaking down the complex continuous movement into manageable discrete segments.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces dynamic time ratio calculations where the movement distance in each time interval is determined by the ratio of that interval's duration to the total prediction period. This dynamic approach allows the prediction to adapt to varying time conditions while maintaining the simplicity of the 16-direction framework.
2Measurement precision
If curved surface distance is calculated using geographical latitude and longitude to determine true moving direction, then prediction accuracy improves, but calculation complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent divides the calculation process into segments: first calculating the curved surface distance for the first time interval, then for the second time interval, and so on. This segmentation makes the complex curved surface calculations more manageable and allows for systematic processing of latitude and longitude data.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses dynamic time ratios to weight the curved surface distance calculations for different time intervals. By calculating the ratio of each interval's time to the total time, the system dynamically adjusts the contribution of each segment's movement to the final prediction, simplifying the overall calculation while maintaining accuracy.
Data Source
AI summary
Embodiments of the present disclosure disclose a typhoon trajectory prediction method, device, electronic equipment and computer readable medium. A detailed implementation of the method includes acquiring typhoon status information that includes typhoon wind speed information and typhoon location information, acquiring information of target distance from typhoon to a target position, obtaining typhoon time difference information based on the information of target distance and the typhoon wind speed information, performing slicing processing on the typhoon time difference information to generate time difference ratio information, performing data processing on the time difference ratio information and the information of target distance to generate time ratio distance information, and performing data processing on the time ratio distance information and the typhoon position information to generate typhoon position prediction information. The implementation realizes targeted prediction typhoon position information, thus enhancing the accuracy of broadcasting typhoon position.