Uncertain Road User Trajectory Prediction via Drivable-Area Exit Points

Resolve Bottlenecks,
Find Innovative Solutions
Generate Solutions

Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for predicting the trajectories of uncertain road users (URUs) in autonomous vehicles are inadequate, particularly in urban environments, as they often rely on single entry or exit point assumptions, leading to false classifications and inefficient collision avoidance strategies.

Innovation Solution

The system identifies multiple potential entry and exit points for URUs within drivable areas using perception information and a scoring mechanism based on loss functions, allowing for more accurate trajectory prediction and collision avoidance by analyzing real-time URU and environmental data.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If multiple goal points are identified and scored using perception information and loss functions, then trajectory prediction accuracy is improved, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvetrajectory prediction accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The drivable area is segmented into multiple discrete goal points rather than treating it as a continuous space. This segmentation allows the system to evaluate specific locations independently, improving prediction accuracy by considering multiple potential exit points while managing complexity through structured discretization of the prediction space.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The system performs preliminary identification and scoring of multiple goal points before final trajectory prediction. By pre-computing scores for various exit points based on perception information and loss functions, the system prepares prediction candidates in advance, which improves accuracy while organizing complexity into manageable preprocessing and prediction stages.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

2Reliability

If multiple potential entry and exit points are analyzed, then collision avoidance effectiveness is improved, but computational time increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecollision avoidance effectivenessVSAvoidcomputational time
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system evaluates multiple goal points beyond what a single-point approach would provide, but not exhaustively all possible points. By selecting a reasonable number of potential entry and exit points to analyze, the system achieves improved collision avoidance effectiveness while limiting computational time through controlled evaluation scope rather than exhaustive analysis.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Solution Approach 2:

The system uses loss functions that incorporate feedback from perception information to score and rank goal points. This feedback mechanism allows the system to efficiently prioritize the most likely exit points based on real-time data, improving collision avoidance by focusing computational resources on high-probability scenarios while reducing overall computational time through intelligent filtering.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentEP4131180B1Methods and system for predicting trajectories of actors with respect to a drivable area
Publication Date: 2025.10.01 VOLKSWAGEN GROUP OF AMERICA INVESTMENTS LLC
  • EP4131180B1 patent drawingFigure 1
  • EP4131180B1 patent drawingFigure 2A~2B
  • EP4131180B1 patent drawingFigure 3

AI summary

Methods and systems for controlling navigation of a vehicle are disclosed. The system will first identify a plurality of goal points corresponding to a drivable area that a vehicle is traversing or will traverse, where the plurality of goal points are potential targets that an uncertain road user (URU) within the drivable area can use to exit the drivable area. The system will then receive perception information relating to the URU within the drivable area, and identify a target exit point from the plurality goal points based on a score. The score is computed based on the received perception information and a loss function. The system will generate a trajectory of the URU from a current position of the URU to the target exit point, and control navigation of the vehicle to avoid collision with the URU.