Urolithiasis Recurrence Prediction Using Hölder Exponent Analysis

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current technologies for managing recurrent urolithiasis lack effective screening, monitoring, and decision support systems, leading to inadequate prevention and intervention strategies, resulting in high recurrence rates and associated morbidity and healthcare utilization.

Innovation Solution

A system and method utilizing time series analysis, specifically the Hölder exponent and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) recurrence rate, to generate a numerical probability of future recurrent urolithiasis, enabling proactive intervention and improved patient care.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If conventional treatment approaches (shock-wave lithotripsy, endourologic approaches) are used for urolithiasis, then treatment capability is improved, but stone-free rate remains insufficient with up to thirty-five percent of patients requiring multiple interventions

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvestone-free rateVSAvoidnumber of interventions required
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by implementing a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of stone recurrence before actual recurrence occurs. The system analyzes temporal patterns in urinalysis parameters and generates risk scores, enabling early intervention with dietary modifications, pharmacologic therapy, or increased monitoring. This proactive approach aims to prevent recurrence rather than merely treating it, thereby improving the effective stone-free rate and reducing the number of repeated interventions needed.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

2Reliability

If monitoring and screening systems are enhanced to improve recurrence prediction, then patient care quality is improved, but system complexity and resource requirements increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improverecurrence prediction accuracyVSAvoidmonitoring system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies self-service by designing a system that automatically collects urinalysis data from routine patient tests, processes the data through algorithms that calculate temporal patterns and Hölder exponents, and generates risk scores without requiring complex manual analysis. The system leverages existing electronic health record infrastructure and routine laboratory tests, transforming ordinary data into predictive insights through automated computation rather than requiring sophisticated specialized equipment or extensive human expertise.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

3Productivity

If preventive interventions are implemented based on predicted recurrence risk, then recurrence frequency is reduced, but healthcare resource utilization increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improverecurrence frequencyVSAvoidhealthcare resource utilization
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSQuantity of substance

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies local quality by implementing risk-stratified care where preventive interventions are tailored to individual patient risk levels rather than applying uniform prevention to all patients. The system generates individualized risk scores and recommends specific interventions appropriate to each patient's predicted recurrence probability, such as dietary modifications for moderate-risk patients or more intensive pharmacologic therapy and monitoring for high-risk patients. This targeted approach concentrates healthcare resources on patients who will benefit most, reducing overall resource utilization while maintaining effectiveness in preventing recurrence.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #3Local quality

Data Source

PatentUS20250174361A1Predicting Recurrent Urolithiasis And Decision Support Tool
Publication Date: 2025.05.29 CERNER INNOVATION INC
  • US20250174361A1 patent drawing
  • US20250174361A1 patent drawing
  • US20250174361A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Decision support technology is provided for use with patients prone to recurrent urolithiasis. A mechanism is provided to determine a forecast of urolithiasis for a patient over a future time interval. The forecast may be based on temporal patterns in urinalysis parameters of the patient. In one embodiment, the mechanism utilizes a time series Hölder exponent and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) recurrence rate to generate a forecast of recurrent symptomatic urolithiasis for a future time, such as a multi-year time horizon. Based on the generated forecast, one or more intervening actions may be carried out automatically or may be recommended, including modifying a care program for the patient, automatically scheduling interventions or consultations with specialist caregivers, or generating notifications such as electronic messages or alerts.